Climate Modeling

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Overview

Climate modeling represents the atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice to explain climate processes and estimate how conditions may change under different forcings. Alongside general circulation and Earth system models, researchers use machine-learning emulators, hybrid physical-neural models, generative methods for ensembles and downscaling, and learned parameterizations of unresolved processes. Models are assessed against observations and reanalysis, and tested for long-term stability, physical consistency, extremes, uncertainty, and performance across resolutions and scenarios. A central challenge is to gain speed and finer detail without losing reliable responses to unfamiliar climates, rare events, or changes in external forcing.

Latest papers

CardsList

69 papers9 papers in the last four weeks, up 13% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. FASST: A Compact Stateless Atmosphere Model for Long-Term Ocean Coupling

    Oct 26, 2026Pratham Aggarwal, Duncan Watson-Parris, William E. ChapmanClimate ModelingClimate Emulation

    University of California San Diego · University of Colorado Boulder

  2. Sensitivity Fidelity Reveals Physical Dependencies Beyond Forecast Accuracy in Deep-Learning Earth-System Models

    Oct 11, 2026Qi Chen, Peng Zhan, Hongxing Cui +2Sensitivity AnalysisNeural Surrogate Modeling

    Physical Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia. · Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China. · Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.

  3. SciExam for ENSO: Can AI Agents Build Climate Models?

    Oct 7, 2026Yinling Zhang, Langchen Liu, Dongbin Xiu +4AI for ScienceAI Agent Benchmarks

    The Ohio State University · Yale University · University of California, San Diego +2

  4. Artificial intelligence pathways from weather to climate

    Oct 7, 2026Tom Beucler, J. David Neelin, Hui Su +10Climate EmulationClimate Modeling

    University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland. · University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA. · Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China. +6

  5. EC-EarthFlow: Probabilistic emulation of daily transient global climate model simulations with flow matching

    Oct 7, 2026Kirien Whan, Nikolaj T. Mücke, Karin van der WielClimate EmulationClimate Modeling

    KNMI, Utrechtseweg 297, De Bilt, 3731GA, The Netherlands · Scientific Computing, Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Science Park 123, Amsterdam, 1098XG, The Netherlands · Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands +1

  6. ClimateBench v2.0: Probabilistic Climate Model Benchmarking

    Oct 3, 2026Duncan Watson-Parris, Willa Tobin, Aytaç Paçal +32Climate ModelingBenchmark Design

    Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego · Halicioglu Data Science Institute, University of California San Diego · University of Tübingen, connAIx Research School for Applied AI, Heilbronn, Germany +23

  7. AEGIS: Differentiable Mars Climate Model with Neural Closures

    Oct 2, 2026Sameera S Kashyap, Victor Cruz, Angel Yepez +1Climate ModelingDifferentiable Programming

    Department of Computer Science UC Santa Cruz Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA

  8. Beyond Pointwise Error: A Multi-Metric Evaluation of Spatial Climate Downscaling

    Oct 1, 2026Loys Masquelier, Etienne Le NaourClimate ScienceClimate Modeling

    EDF R&D, Palaiseau, France

  9. Strategic Governance of AI Models in Earth Science

    Oct 1, 2026Makoto Kelp, Amirhossein Arzani, Patricia Castellanos +6AI Safety EvaluationClimate Modeling

    University of Utah · NASA Goddard Space Flight Center · University of Bristol +5

  10. Counterfactual Predictions in Scientific Emulators Without Controlled Experiments

    Sep 30, 2026Dingling Yao, Kahaan Gandhi, Valentin Duruisseaux +3Counterfactual PredictionCausal Inference

    Institute of Science and Technology Austria · California Institute of Technology · NVIDIA

  11. Generalizable Neural Downscaling of Earth System Model Wind Fields via Continuous Dynamics Modeling

    Sep 26, 2026Chenxi Yu, Jianan Wei, Hanlin Kong +3Climate DownscalingClimate Modeling

    State Key Lab of Brain-Machine Intelligence, Zhejiang University · Gaoling School of Artificial Intelligence, Renmin University of China · State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

  12. Learning Hierarchical Causal Representations of the Effects of Forcings on Temperature in Climate Models

    Sep 25, 2026Shan Zhao, Ilija Trajkovic, Julia Kaltenborn +4Surrogate ModelingCausal Representation Learning

    Technical University of Munich Munich, Germany · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Karlsruhe, Germany · McGill University & Mila Montreal, Canada +1

  13. Understanding Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Sensitivities Using A Contrastive Learning Approach

    Sep 24, 2026Da Fan, David John Gagne, Gregory S Elsaesser +5Climate ModelingSensitivity Analysis

    Learning the Earth with Artificial Intelligence and Physics (LEAP) National Science Foundation (NSF) Science and Technology Center, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA · Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA · NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA +2

  14. HClimRep-Ocean: A Global Ocean Emulator on an Unstructured Mesh

    Sep 23, 2026Kacper Nowak, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov +7Neural Surrogate ModelingClimate Modeling

    Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany · Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich Supercomputing Center, Jülich, Germany · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany +3

  15. Learning Prognostic Variables for AI Convective Parameterizations via Symbolic Distillation

    Sep 21, 2026Jurij Schönfeld, Tom Beucler, Julien Savre +2Latent Variable ModelsClimate Modeling

    Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany · University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), Bremen, Germany · Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland +3

  16. Optimizing Geoengineering Interventions Using Differentiable Climate Models

    Sep 11, 2026Pulkit Dubey, Dorian S. Abbot, Ashesh ChattopadhyayClimate ScienceClimate Modeling

    Department of Applied Mathematics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 · Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637

  17. Neptune: An AI model for Global Ocean Subseasonal Prediction

    Sep 8, 2026Davide Donno, Italo Epicoco, Massimo Cafaro +8Neural Surrogate ModelingClimate Modeling

    Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Monteroni, Lecce, Italy · CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy · Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA +2

  18. Steering Diffusion Priors with Sparse Observations for High-Resolution Temperature Downscaling

    Sep 8, 2026Anirudh Avireddy, Manmeet Singh, Shivanshi Singh +4Diffusion Model GuidanceClimate Modeling

    Shiv Nadar University, India · Western Kentucky University, USA · Ashoka University, India

  19. Climate Physics Dynamic Matching

    Aug 27, 2026Gurjeet Sangra Singh, Frantzeska Lavda, Alexandros KalousisWeather ForecastingPhysics-Informed Generative Modeling

    University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland · HES-SO Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

  20. DySCo: Dynamically consistent data-driven downscaling of extremes in climate projections

    Aug 22, 2026S. Stamatelopoulos, M. Wang, I. Lopez-Gomez +5Climate DownscalingClimate Modeling

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Department of Mechanical Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China · Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA +1

  21. Physics-Knowledge-Guided Hybrid Neural Learning for Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Evolution and Short-Range Prediction

    Aug 22, 2026Maqun Zhang, Feng Gao, Wankun Chen +3Physics-Informed MLClimate Modeling

    State Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography and Faculty of Information Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China · School of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, U.K.

  22. Interpretable AI predicts a 2026 summer dry anomaly in central China

    Aug 19, 2026Anran Wang, Wen Shi, Yong Luo +5Precipitation ForecastingClimate Modeling

    Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China · Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National Research Station, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China · College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China +3

  23. OceanLight: Efficient Global Ocean Forecasting via Geometry-Adaptive Unstructured Mesh Representation

    Aug 17, 2026Wei Wu, Xiang Wang, Hongze Leng +3Spatiotemporal ForecastingGeometric Representation Learning

    College of Computer Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology, Deya Street, Changsha, 410073, Hunan, China. · College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Deya Street, Changsha, 410073, Hunan, China. · Hunan Institute of Advanced Technology, Qingshan Street, Changsha, 410205, Hunan, China.

  24. Stochastic Emulation of a Fully Coupled Preindustrial E3SMv3 Simulation

    Aug 10, 2026Elynn Wu, James P. C. Duncan, Troy Arcomano +11Surrogate ModelingClimate Science

    Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (Ai2), Seattle, WA, USA · Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA · Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA +2

  25. Temporal Bridges for Spatial Resolution: Enhancing Climate Data Super-Resolution with Bidirectional Alignment

    Aug 6, 2026Yichen Zhang, Yixiong Xiao, Congxi Xiao +1Climate ModelingImage Super-Resolution

    Baidu, Inc., Beijing, China

  26. Rescene: stable century-long climate emulation from a frozen weather model

    Jul 30, 2026Minjong CheonNeural Surrogate ModelingClimate Emulation

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, South Korea

  27. Projected climate memory and inherited warm-tail risk in accelerated European summer warming

    Jul 28, 2026Mauricio Herrera-Marín, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Diego RiveraProbabilistic ForecastingClimate Modeling

    Research Center on Sustainability and Strategic Resource Management (CISGER), Faculty of Engineering, Universidad del Desarrollo, Avda. Plaza 700, Santiago, Chile.

  28. Physics-Informed Super-Resolution of Atmospheric Data

    Jul 21, 2026Chang Xu, Gencer Sumbul, Hugo Porta +3Climate ModelingPhysics-Informed ML

    EPFL, Switzerland · University of Cambridge, England

  29. Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement of Foundation Models: A Case Study in Drought Forecasting

    Jul 20, 2026Wentao Gao, Jiuyong Li, Lin Liu +4Time Series ForecastingClimate Modeling

    Adelaide University, Adelaide, SA, Australia · CSIRO Technology, Canberra, Australia · CSIRO Environment, Canberra, Australia

  30. AeroMELD: A Linear Embedding of Aerosol Populations for Diagnostics and Latent Dynamics

    Jul 13, 2026Ehsan Saleh, Saba Ghaffari, Wenhan Tang +5Representation LearningLatent Dynamics Modeling

    Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA · National Center for Supercomputing Applications, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA · Now at Amazon, Sunnyvale, California, USA +3