GeoRisk-RAG: A Hierarchy-Aware Risk Framework for Improving RAG Reliability through Selective Answering
Organizations: Virginia Tech Alexandria, Virginia, U.S. · Florida Polytechnic University Lakeland, Florida, U.S. · Kuwait University Kuwait City, Kuwait
Abstract
Current work on improving reliability in large language model (LLM)- generated answers has primarily leveraged Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), knowledge-graph augmentation, and reinforcement learning. While these methods are adept at enhancing and measuring reliability through semantic similarity and faithfulness, they often struggle to distinguish semantic similarity from geographic validity. This is especially critical in natural hazard management domains where geographic granularity (i.e., town vs. city vs. state) is significant for decision-making, as responses valid in one municipality may not transfer to another. In such domains, a confidently wrong answer carries greater risk than abstaining. We present GeoRisk-RAG, a novel hierarchy-aware framework that addresses this geographic-validity gap through selective answering. This framework explicitly estimates geographic applicability using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG)-based distance for context retrieval before response generation. Experiments on a novel held-out wildfire-related question-answering (QA) dataset show that GeoRisk-RAG significantly reduces false confidence rates for location-dependent questions, lowering the rate to 0.009 compared with ~0.090 for standard semantic similarity and reranking baselines, while consistently achieving higher human preference alignment. This work provides a more comprehensive assessment of end-to-end RAG pipelines by integrating geographic validity and selective-answering behavior for safer decision-making in geospatial domains.
Figures & tables
| Statistic | Count | Percent |
| Total question-answer pairs | 449 | – |
| States covered | 19 | – |
| Unique cities covered | 28 | – |
| Avg tokens in Question | 18 | – |
| Avg tokens in Answer | 156 | – |
| Geographic granularity | ||
| Metric | Flair | SpaCy | BERT | DeBERTa |
| Precision | 0.943 | 0.829 | 0.842 | 0.865 |
| Recall (Completeness) | 0.928 | 0.775 | 0.884 | 0.891 |
| F1-Score | 0.929 | 0.789 | 0.853 | 0.878 |
| Avg Latency (s) per Text | 0.592 | 0.062 | 0.128 | 0.744 |
| Total Execution Time (s) | 135.670 | 13.900 | 29.399 | 170.404 |
| Example query: “How do wildfire risks vary in Oregon?” | |||||
| Query hierarchy: [Oregon, Pacific Northwest, United States] | |||||
| Passage type | Passage hierarchy | Dist. | Shared ancestor | Relation | Decision |
| Exact Oregon passage | [Oregon, Pacific Northwest, United States] | 0 | Oregon | exact match | answer |
| Broader U.S. passage | [United States] | 2 | United States | passage broader than query | warn |
| Same-region passage | [California, West, United States] | 2 | West | different place, same ancestor | abstain |
| County-level passage | [Multnomah County, Oregon, Pacific Northwest, United States] | 1 | Oregon | passage more granular than query | warn |
| Method | Data Structure | Retrieval Logic | Purpose |
| Standard RAG | Text Embeddings | Vector cosine similarity only. | Standard, commonly used baseline. |
| Standard RAG + Cross Encoder | Reranked List | Semantic reranking of top 10 results. | Demonstrates that reranking alone is insufficient for geographic retrieval. |
| Granularity Match | Ordinal Scale | Matches based on geographic scope (city, county, state, region, country). | Highlights the need for relationships other than ancestor relationships. |
| Exact Keyword Match | String Literal | Text must match exactly (e.g., “Texas” == “Texas”). | Shows insufficiency of literal string matching for varied geographic aliases. |
| GeoRisk-RAG | Directed Acyclic Graph | Knowledge graph logic using Wikidata for multi-parent resolution. | Resolves tribal lands, ambiguous places, and census-designated areas. |
| Method | Good Decision Quality Rate | Faithfulness | Appropriate Warning Rate | Over-Abstention Rate | False Confidence | Factual Correctness |
| Location-Dependent Queries | ||||||
| Standard RAG+Cross Encoder | 0.751 (0.692–0.810) | 0.773 (0.693–0.852) | 0.001 (0.000–0.001) | 0.086 (0.054–0.127) | 0.090 (0.054–0.131) | 0.557 (0.493-0.620) |
| Standard RAG | 0.819 (0.769–0.869) | 0.800 (0.714–0.876) | 0.009 (0.000–0.023) | 0.036 (0.014–0.063) | 0.095 (0.059-0.136) | 0.679 (0.615-0.742) |
| Keyword Match | 0.908 (0.896–0.939) | 0.909 (0.878–0.958) | 0.005 (0.000–0.014) | 0.045 (0.018–0.073) | 0.023 (0.005–0.045) | 0.615 (0.552–0.683) |
| Granularity Match | 0.824 (0.769–0.873) | 0.750 (0.666–0.845) | 0.001 (0.000–0.001) | 0.041 (0.018–0.068) | 0.095 (0.059–0.136) | 0.561 (0.498–0.624) |
| GeoRisk-RAG | 0.946 (0.910–0.977) | 0.965 (0.912–1.000) | 0.195 (0.140–0.244) | 0.030 (0.014–0.053) | 0.009 (0.000–0.023) | 0.761 (0.708–0.824) |
| bge-base-en-v1.5 | bge-small-en-v1.5 | |||
| Retrieved Passages (Semantic Retrieval Stability) | ||||
| Standard+Cross Encoder | 0.815 | 0.816 | ||
| Granularity Match | 0.820 | 0.829 | ||
| Keyword Match | 0.863 | 0.872 | ||
| Standard RAG | 0.814 | 0.821 | ||
| GeoRisk-RAG | 0.872 | 0.873 | ||
| Geographic- Error Type | Standard+ Cross -Encoder | Keyword Match | Granularity Match | Standard RAG | GeoRisk- RAG |
| Exact Geo Match | 0.718 | 0.745 | 0.747 | 0.683 | 0.811 |
| Geo Mismatch | 0.732 | 0.700 | 1.000 | 0.686 | 0.685 |
| No Geo context | 0.350 | 0.420 | 0.419 | 0.472 | 0.357 |
| Coarse Geo | 0.812 | 0.889 | 0.867 | 0.889 | 1.000 |
| Fine Geo | 0.500 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.723 | 1.000 |
Appendix figures & tables5 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Topic | Description | Count |
| General Wildfire Behavior | Causes, spread, fire science, smoke behavior, seasons, risk factors. | 42 |
| Home and Property | Protecting homes, defensible space, structures, insurance for homes, property damage. | 52 |
| Codes and Regulations | Laws, building codes, permit rules, compliance requirements, official regulations. | 29 |
| Specific Fire Event | Questions about a named wildfire, a particular incident, location-specific active or past fire. | 3 |
| Community | Questions about how the community can help, community-level impacts. | 10 |
| Land | Forests, vegetation, soil, erosion, watersheds, land management, acreage, habitat. | 16 |
| Category | Domains |
| Press Association | apnews.com, reuters.com, afp.com, upi.com |
| National U.S. | nytimes.com, washingtonpost.com, wsj.com, usatoday.com, npr.org |
| Regional | chicagotribune.com, latimes.com, bostonglobe.com, dallasnews.com, sfchronicle.com, denverpost.com, seattletimes.com, startribune.com, tampabay.com, miamiherald.com, inquirer.com, oregonlive.com |
| International | theguardian.com, ft.com, economist.com, abc.net.au, cbc.ca |
| Investigative | propublica.org, theatlantic.com |
| Fire / Disaster | wildfiretoday.com |
| Model Name | gpt-oss-120b | gemma-4-31B | nemotron-3 super |
| Params | 120B | 31B | 120B |
| Context Length | 131,072 | 262,144 | 1,048,576 |
| Weight Format | MXFP4 | BF16 | FP8 |
| GPU Resources | 4x A100 40GB | 2x H200 141GB | 4x H200 141GB |
| Temperature | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Max Tokens | 800 | 800 | 200 |