Can your AI agent be cheaper? Investigating the effects of task specifications on token spend in agentic coding tasks

The wide adoption of AI agents in complex human workflows is driving rapid growth in LLM token consumption. When agents are deployed on tasks that require a significant amount of tokens, three questions naturally arise: (1) Where do AI agents spend the tokens? (2) Which models are more token-efficient? and (3) Can agents predict their token usage before task execution? In this paper, we present the first systematic study of token consumption patterns in agentic coding tasks. We analyze trajectories from eight frontier LLMs on SWE-bench Verified and evaluate models' ability to predict their own token costs before task execution. We find that: (1) agentic tasks are uniquely expensive, consuming 1000x more tokens than code reasoning and code chat, with input tokens rather than output tokens driving the overall cost; (2) token usage is highly variable and inherently stochastic: runs on the same task can differ by up to 30x in total tokens, and higher token usage does not translate into higher accuracy; instead, accuracy often peaks at intermediate cost and saturates at higher costs; (3) models vary substantially in token efficiency: on the same tasks, Kimi-K2 and Claude-Sonnet-4.5, on average, consume over 1.5 million more tokens than GPT-5; (4) task difficulty rated by human experts only weakly aligns with actual token costs, revealing a fundamental gap between human-perceived complexity and the computational effort agents actually expend; and (5) frontier models fail to accurately predict their own token usage (with weak-to-moderate correlations, up to 0.39) and systematically underestimate real token costs. Our study offers new insights into the economics of AI agents and can inspire future research in this direction.

Two prompts can request the same code change and produce the same correct patch, yet cause a coding agent to perform radically different kinds and amounts of work. We study this effect in a preregistered benchmark spanning 4,644 valid runs, 24 deterministic coding tasks, seven reasoning models, and two real agent harnesses. The central finding is that prompt wording does not merely scale total effort; it changes where that effort is spent. Multiple approaches and deep thinking primarily inflate reasoning. Multiple approaches increases reasoning by 2.4x to 7.4x across all six open models and creates about three elaborated but discarded solution branches, while still yielding only one implemented solution and no success gain. Maximum certainty activates a different pathway: repeated verification propagates into extra test runs, tool calls, turns, latency, and context growth. Runs with high redundant verification cost 18x the clean-run median, execute 2.5x more tool calls, and take 3x longer, again without a success gradient. These mechanisms therefore have distinct cost carriers: some prompts are reasoning-heavy and token-borne, while others are tool-heavy and system-borne. Harness design amplifies both effects and changes cost per successful task by 5x to 30x in our setting. The findings survive a frozen holdout, paraphrase tests, a Kimi-K3 replication, and a first-party Claude Sonnet 5 study. In contrast, bounded-efficiency wording preserves diagnosis and final validation while avoiding the measured waste mechanisms. Prompt engineering for coding agents is therefore work design: it determines what the agent thinks through, what it executes, and when it stops.

When a large language model (LLM) agent executes the same task, token consumption can vary by over an order of magnitude across runs. The agent chooses its next steps based on tool feedback and intermediate results, while the growing context steadily inflates the input size of every subsequent call. The total consumption of a task is therefore hard to predict before execution and the prediction must be revised as the run unfolds. In this paper, we propose TokenCast, which learns a composable cost representation for each execution segment, recording its own consumption and the context growth it introduces. Composing adjacent segments yields a cumulative estimate that captures the extra input cost incurred when context from earlier segments is re-read by every later call. As execution unfolds, newly observed evidence refreshes the forecast, requiring no additional LLM calls and incurring a mean cumulative prediction time of 32.8 ms per run on SWE-bench Verified. Across 4 task suites and 6 agent models, TokenCast's mean absolute error reduction against the strongest comparator averages 14.5% over 96 evaluated combinations. In offline budget-control replay, TokenCast uses 21.3% fewer tokens on average than a fixed-budget policy at matched trace completion. The code is available at https://github.com/DEFENSE-SEU/TokenCast.