Accurate gust forecasting under typhoon conditions remains challenging due to the highly non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics of extreme wind fluctuations. Existing deep learning models often struggle to simultaneously capture long-term trends and rapid local variations, resulting in degraded performance during extreme events. We propose WDANet, a frequency-aware forecasting framework that integrates stationary wavelet decomposition, a Feature-wise Linear Modulation (FiLM) strategy, and a dual-branch encoder-decoder architecture, enabling separate modeling of trend and fluctuation components. Taking the offshore regions of the Western Pacific in China as an example, we conduct fine-grid wind gust prediction research. The results demonstrate that WDANet shows advantages for short lead times under the experimental setting across a 24-h forecasting horizon and achieves higher prediction accuracy than ECMWF-HRES within the first 6 h. During extreme wind events, WDANet more accurately captures gust peaks and attains the best RMSE and MAE performance. These results highlight its potential for offshore wind power operation, disaster warning, and risk mitigation.
Global wind power capacity, especially in China, is booming, with new farms spanning diverse terrains and climates. The industry urgently needs accurate wind power foundation models to shorten commissioning and accelerate grid connection. This is because site-specific time series models (TSMs) are not well suited to data-scarce scenarios and generalize poorly, while generic large time series models (LTSMs) are mostly limited to univariate inputs and cannot fully exploit static site attributes or the dependencies between power and meteorological covariates, leading to insufficient accuracy. To fill this gap, we propose \textbf{Tyan-WP}, the first wind power foundation model for ultra-short-term probabilistic forecasting. Pretrained on a large-scale wind power dataset covering more than 126,000 U.S. sites over seven years, Tyan-WP further improves zero-shot forecasting through two domain-specific module designs: static site embedding using coordinate, terrain, and ecoregion metadata, and a power-aware meteorological fusion (PAMF) module that models interactions between historical power and meteorological covariates. Under a unified evaluation protocol, Tyan-WP surpasses eight site-specific supervised TSMs on 10 in-domain sites and outperforms eleven generic LTSMs on 127 in-domain sites, reducing MAE by 19.9%, RMSE by 16.6%, CRPS by 22.2%, and AQL by 21.7%, while raising R^2 by 16.7%. It further demonstrates strong cross-geography generalization on six real U.K. sites. These results show that the wind power foundation model can achieve accurate zero-shot forecasting without target-site training, providing a practical pathway for rapid turbine onboarding and probabilistic risk management at new wind farms.
Storm surge forecasting remains a critical challenge in mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones on coastal regions, particularly given recent trends of rapid intensification and increasing nearshore storm activity. Traditional high fidelity numerical models such as ADCIRC, while robust, are often hindered by inevitable uncertainties arising from various sources. To address these challenges, this study introduces StormNet, a spatio-temporal graph neural network (GNN) designed for bias correction of storm surge forecasts. StormNet integrates graph convolutional (GCN) and graph attention (GAT) mechanisms with long short-term memory (LSTM) components to capture complex spatial and temporal dependencies among water-level gauge stations. The model was trained using historical hurricane data from the U.S. Gulf Coast and evaluated on Hurricane Idalia (2023). Results demonstrate that StormNet can effectively reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) in water-level predictions by more than 70% for 48-hour forecasts and above 50% for 72-hour forecasts, as well as outperform a sequential LSTM baseline, particularly for longer prediction horizons. The model also exhibits low training time, enhancing its applicability in real-time operational forecasting systems. Overall, StormNet provides a computationally efficient and physically meaningful framework for improving storm surge prediction accuracy and reliability during extreme weather events.
Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is essential for grid stability and operational planning, yet remains challenging due to the complex interactions between atmospheric conditions and turbine dynamics. However, existing methods fail to effectively incorporate weather forecasting with wind turbine data (i.e., SCADA), leading to suboptimal solutions. To address this, we introduce a multimodal framework that integrates historical point-based SCADA data with grid-based Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, which is challenging due to heterogeneous input and the complex physical wind-turbine interactions. Our approach first explicitly decomposes inputs into scalar and vector features to better capture both site-specific and geometric dependencies and then incorporates a geometric encoder to extract rotation-invariant features from wind vectors. We further leverages a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) architecture, which performs global convolutions in the frequency domain to efficiently model long-range spatiotemporal relationships. Extensive experiments on three real-world wind farms, with weather forecasting data, demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of its physically-informed design. The core implementation of our method is publicly available at: https://github.com/shawn-sypiao/GWPF.