SimCast-S2S: A Computationally Efficient Diffusion Model for Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasting
Authors: Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis
Organizations: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, United States · School of Data Science, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, United States
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecasting has substantial financial and societal impact, yet remains challenging because of weak predictive signals, high associated uncertainty, and the computational cost of operational systems, which constrains simulation fidelity. We introduce SimCast-S2S, a generative latent-diffusion framework for probabilistic S2S precipitation forecasting that addresses three major bottlenecks in data-driven prediction. First, because S2S prediction requires uncertainty quantification rather than only deterministic point forecasts, SimCast-S2S is the first data-driven system that uses a diffusion-based generative pipeline for S2S prediction, enabling effective sampling from the underlying conditional distribution. Second, since generating large probabilistic ensembles is computationally costly in physical space, SimCast-S2S instead operates in a compact latent space learned by variational autoencoders (VAEs), enabling efficient large-ensemble generation. Third, diffusion models typically require large training datasets; SimCast-S2S overcomes this via transfer learning with low-rank adaptation (LoRA), pretraining on large ensembles of climate simulations before fine-tuning on limited reanalysis data. On reanalysis data, SimCast-S2S outperforms deep learning baselines, including convolutional neural networks and U-Net architectures. Notably, despite using only a subset of atmospheric input variables and no post-processing, bias correction, or calibration, SimCast-S2S remains competitive with, and in many aspects outperforms, state-of-the-art operational systems such as the ECMWF-S2S baseline. These results indicate that latent generative modeling combined with simulation-to-reanalysis transfer learning offers an efficient and scalable path toward data-driven probabilistic S2S precipitation forecasting.
Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management but remains challenging for both numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and data-driven models. We present CSU-PCAST, a deep learning-based ensemble forecasting framework for global precipitation prediction. The model is trained using ERA5 atmospheric and surface variables at 0.25° resolution with precipitation labels from NASA's IMERG dataset. CSU-PCAST uses 57 prognostic variables and static geographical fields to predict both atmospheric states and 6-h accumulated precipitation. The framework employs a Swin Transformer backbone with stochastic noise conditioning, temporal embeddings, and a dual-branch decoder for precipitation and non-precipitation variables. During inference, CSU-PCAST is initialized from operational GFS analyses and generates 30 ensemble members out to 15 days using an autoregressive strategy. Evaluation against GEFS over the full year of 2023 shows improved precipitation forecast skill at short lead times, including higher Critical Success Index (CSI) and lower RMSE during the first several forecast days. CSU-PCAST also reduces GEFS wet bias for light precipitation and dry bias at heavier precipitation thresholds. Probabilistic verification demonstrates lower CRPS, higher Brier Skill Scores at several thresholds, and improved ensemble reliability relative to GEFS, although both systems remain underdispersive. A case study of the Sanba extreme precipitation event further shows improved spatial structure and exceedance-probability guidance. These results demonstrate the potential of CSU-PCAST for short-to-medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasting while highlighting remaining challenges in extreme precipitation prediction and ensemble calibration.
Accurate weather forecasts are essential across various domains and are safety-critical in extreme weather conditions. Compared to simulation-based forecasting, data-driven approaches show greater efficiency, enabling short-term, high-resolution nowcasting. In particular, diffusion models proved effective in weather nowcasting due to their strong probabilistic foundation. However, existing methods rely on deterministic compression to reduce the complexity of high-dimensional weather data, limiting their ability to capture uncertainty in the decoding process. In this work, we introduce FREUD, a Frame-wise Encoder and United Decoder model based on rectified flow transformers for efficient compression of spatio-temporal weather data. Frame-wise encoding enables continuous forecast updates, while the unified video decoder ensures temporal consistency. Our uncertainty-preserving first stage allows us to capture aleatoric uncertainty via ensembling, which is particularly beneficial for extreme weather events with high decoding variability. We achieve state-of-the-art performance in precipitation nowcasting with a compact latent-space rectified flow transformer on the SEVIR benchmark and show further performance gains by model and test-time scaling. Code available here: https://github.com/CompVis/weather-rf
Johannes Schusterbauer, Jannik Wiese, Nick Stracke +2
Emulators provide a cost-effective alternative to regional climate models (RCMs) by capturing their dynamical downscaling function. They link large-scale predictors simulated by global climate models (GCMs) to RCM-simulated high-resolution fields of the target variable, here precipitation. Machine learning methods, typically deep learning, are cheaper than running RCMs in computation time and energy. Among them, generative models are appealing because they can simulate ensembles of local high-resolution fields consistent with the predictors. This ensemble, which we call the uncertainty envelope, remains to be properly assessed for added value. Here, we make three contributions. First, we introduce ParamDiffusion, a new two-stage diffusion-based framework, and compare it with a state-of-the-art diffusion approach. Second, we expand standard validation through a comprehensive framework aligned with climate-science needs, examining specific precipitation events, including extremes. Third, within this framework, we assess the added value of diffusion approaches relative to deterministic methods. We intercompare four deep-learning models: a deterministic model designed to capture the precipitation tail; a parametric probabilistic model based on it; a recently proposed diffusion approach; and ParamDiffusion, which couples the parametric model with a diffusion model. Our results show that diffusion-based approaches reproduce climatological precipitation statistics with high skill, including distributional tails and spatially compounded extremes, while generating spatially detailed fields. However, none of the assessed models consistently accounts for the most extreme RCM-simulated events within its uncertainty envelope. Diffusion models are therefore promising for probabilistic RCM emulation, but progress is still required before they can reliably represent high-impact precipitation extremes.
Mikel N. Legasa, Antoine Doury, Achille Gellens +4