Prediction of Prediction (PoP): Inter-Layer Activation Fusion for Single-Pass Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models

Although large language models support a wide range of tasks, hallucinations remain a major obstacle to user trust. When a model generates an answer, both its internal processing and final output vary with the question. Internal states are often expected to offer richer signals for hallucination detection. However, studies using these states typically report their standalone discrimination performance, while output-side comparisons often use simple baselines with weaker modeling capacity. We integrate output-side information available at inference time into a combined baseline and compare detection performance before and after adding hidden states under identical data splits and evaluation rules. Experiments cover open-ended generation and constrained multiple-choice tasks across different models. Adding hidden states improves AUROC by approximately 0.004 and 0.039 on the two tasks, respectively. Hidden states thus provide additional predictive information, but strong standalone detection performance can still yield only limited additional gains.

Hallucination remains a critical challenge in large language models (LLMs), where early factual errors compound through autoregressive generation in a snowballing effect that neither post-hoc correction nor weight-level intervention can effectively preempt. We propose DescaPE (DEcoding Signal Control Against Path Error-snowballing), a decoding framework that leverages internal model signals to suppress hallucination-prone trajectories at inference time. Through sliding-window MLP ablation, we identify a factual-salient layer span within LLMs whose derived signal is selectively elevated for factual tokens and exhibits anomalous spikes at hallucination-prone steps. We train a lightweight probe to approximate this signal from a single forward pass and integrate it into candidate scoring to penalize high-risk continuations while rewarding factually grounded ones. Experiments across five factuality benchmarks on three LLMs demonstrate that DescaPE achieves factuality improvements over decoding-time baselines in multiple settings, while incurring only 1.10x latency overhead in our efficiency evaluation. Our code is available at https://github.com/hayeonggg/DESCAPE.

One of the most critical challenges in Large Language Models is their tendency to hallucinate, i.e., produce factually incorrect responses. Existing approaches show promising results in terms of hallucination correction, but still suffer from a main limitation: they apply corrections indiscriminately to every token, corrupting also the originally correct generations. To overcome this drawback, we propose PCNET, a Probabilistic Circuit trained as a tractable density estimator over the LLM residual stream. The method detects hallucinations as geometric anomalies on the factual manifold, which is done via exact Negative Log-Likelihood computation, hence without the need for sampling, external verifiers, or weight modifications, as in existing techniques. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we exploit PCNET as a dynamic gate that distinguishes hallucinated from factual hidden states at each decoding step. This triggers our second main contribution, PC-LDCD (Probabilistic Circuit Latent Density Contrastive Decoding), only when the latent geometry deviates from factual regions, while leaving correct generations untouched. Across four LLMs, ranging from 1B to 8B models, and four benchmarks covering conversational reasoning, knowledge-intensive QA, reading comprehension, and truthfulness, PCNET achieves near-perfect hallucination detection across CoQA, SQuAD v2.0, and TriviaQA, with AUROC reaching up to 99%. Moreover, PC-LDCD obtains the highest True+Info, MC2, and MC3 scores on TruthfulQA in three out of four models, in comparison with state-of-the-art baselines, while reducing the mean corruption rate to 53.7% and achieving a preservation rate of 79.3%. Our proposed method is publicly available on GitHub.