Early discovery of at least one valid design satisfying a target requirement is a central objective in failure-prone closed-loop inverse design. A natural batch baseline ranks candidates by a product-form marginal valid-hit score, but selecting the highest-ranked candidates independently can produce redundant recommendations under predictive uncertainty and waste the experiment budget. We introduce ARC-SC(Anchored Risk-Constrained Scenario Coverage), a batch acquisition method that preserves strong marginal candidates as anchors and allocates the remaining batch positions by maximizing complementary coverage over predictive target scenarios under a risk-support constraint. In frozen-oracle closed-loop simulations on superconductivity and JARVIS materials-property benchmarks, ARC-SC yields a statistically supported improvement in first-hit discovery and remains competitive with directionally favorable first-hit performance on more challenging design space. These results establish ARC-SC as a POF-anchored, scenario-aware batch strategy for improving early valid-target discovery under structured experimental failure.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Integrated schematic overview of ARC-SC. At each closed-loop iteration, target and validity models are updated from previous valid and failed experiments and used to score a finite candidate pool. Strong marginal valid-hit candidates are retained through POF-style risk-admissible anchoring. Multiple predictive target scenarios then expose alternative plausible opportunities, and the remaining batch positions are assigned to complementary candidates under a validity-support risk budget. Experimental evaluation reveals valid target hits, valid non-hits, and invalid outcomes, which are appended to the observed data for the next iteration. The embedded design-space illustrations are schematic and do not represent a particular experimental run.
DATASET
SAMPLES
FEATURES
THRESHOLD
ORACLE R2
SPEARMAN ρ
Superconductivity
21,263
5
80.0
0.913
0.956
JARVIS CFID
55,723
15
1.539
0.838
0.912
Table 1: Summary of the frozen-oracle benchmark environments. The JARVIS response is negative formation energy per atom, such that larger values are preferred.
Dataset
W/T/L
Cond. win frac.
Sign p
Δτhit
Superconductivity
70/251/39
0.642[0.545,0.732]
0.004
−0.269[−0.539,−0.025]
JARVIS CFID
49/272/39
0.557[0.447,0.663]
0.337
−0.117[−0.297,0.053]
Table 2: First-hit comparison against the POF baseline using ten seeds per condition. W/T/L denotes earlier-hit wins, ties, and later-hit losses. The conditional win fraction is computed over discordant pairs only. Δτhit<0 favor ARC-SC. Intervals are 95% confidence intervals.
Figure 2: First-hit probability as a function of experimental round. Lines show ARC-SC and POF baseline; shaded regions denote hierarchical-bootstrap 95% confidence intervals. Left: superconductivity with shared uniform candidate pools. Right: JARVIS with the mixed candidate-pool protocol. The results show that ARC-SC improves early target discovery on superconductivity with statistically significant gains in first-hit performance. On JARVIS, ARC-SC remains competitive. Although it does not achieve statistically significant superiority, it demonstrates robustness in the more challenging high-dimensional design space.
Appendix figures & tables3 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Quantity
Superconductivity
JARVIS CFID
Initial observations n0
50
50
Batch size B / rounds
5 / 5
5 / 5
POF anchors K
3
3
Candidate-pool size N
10,000
10,000
Predictive scenarios M
64
64
Target quantile
0.85
0.75
Appendix
Table 3: Algorithm and evaluation settings. Dataset-specific entries are shown explicitly.
Many of the most important problems in science and engineering are inverse problems: given a desired outcome, find a design that achieves it. Evaluating whether a candidate meets the spec is often routine; a binding energy can be computed, a reactor yield simulated, a pharmacokinetic profile predicted. But searching a combinatorial design space for inputs that satisfy those targets is fundamentally harder. We introduce SciDesignBench, a benchmark of 520 simulator-grounded tasks across 14 scientific domains and five settings spanning single-shot design, short-horizon feedback, long-horizon refinement, and seed-design optimization. On the 10-domain shared-core subset, the best zero-shot model reaches only 29.0% success despite substantially higher parse rates. Simulator feedback helps, but the leaderboard changes with horizon: Sonnet 4.5 is strongest in one-turn de novo design, whereas Opus 4.6 is strongest after 20 turns of simulator-grounded refinement. Providing a starting seed design reshuffles the leaderboard again, demonstrating that constrained modification requires a fundamentally different capability from unconstrained de novo generation. We then introduce RLSF, a simulator-feedback training recipe. An RLSF-tuned 8B model raises single-turn success rates by 8-17 percentage points across three domains. Together, these results position simulator-grounded inverse design as both a benchmark for scientific reasoning and a practical substrate for amortizing expensive test-time compute into model weights.
In many materials and product design problems, desirable candidates exhibit properties that fall within an acceptable range rather than achieve a single optimum. Recovering multiple, distinct solutions that satisfy such specifications is also practically valuable, as some candidates may be preferred for reasons of cost, processability, or robustness that are difficult to encode directly in an objective function. Here, we develop a range-aware Bayesian optimization (BO) framework in which the acquisition function directly scores the posterior probability that a candidate satisfies a target range. The framework naturally extends to parallel pursuit of multiple distinct specifications over a shared candidate space. Across benchmark tasks, range-aware acquisition consistently recovers larger and more diverse sets of valid designs than standard BO baselines and recent goal-seeking methods. Its utility is further demonstrated in two practically motivated design case studies involving optimizing reaction conditions for polymer synthesis and sequence-defined oligomer discovery for prescribed optical absorption bands, supported by quantum chemical calculations. These results suggest that range-aware BO can provide a practical and sample-efficient foundation for specification-driven design, particularly when design flexibility and solution diversity are important considerations.
Shengli Jiang, Jason Wu, Charles M. Schroeder +1
Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
High-throughput gene perturbation experiments can test several genetic interventions in parallel, yet experimental budgets remain limited. A central goal is hit discovery: identifying as many perturbations as possible whose phenotypic effect exceeds a predefined threshold. Pure exploration strategies are statistically inefficient, wasting budget on low-value regions. Bayesian optimization methods offer a principled alternative but target a single global optimum, over-exploiting dominant modes while neglecting other high-value regions. We formalize hit discovery as a sequential experimental design problem and propose Probability-of-Hit, an acquisition function that directly targets threshold exceedance by ranking candidates according to their posterior probability of being a hit. We prove asymptotic optimality of this approach and demonstrate strong empirical performance on both synthetic benchmarks and real biological immunology datasets, including up to 6.4% improvement over baselines on the Schmidt IL-2 dataset.
Andrea Rubbi, Arpit Merchant, Samuel Ogden +4
Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK · Cambridge Center for AI in Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK · MediaTek Research, Cambridge, UK +1