Exact Recovery Thresholds for Weighted Data Selection in Vector-Valued Linear Regression

We resolve the threshold part of Question 4 of the COLT 2025 open problem "Data Selection for Regression Tasks" of Hanneke, Moran, Shlimovich and Yehudayoff. In vector-valued linear regression with square loss $\ell_{(x,y)}(W)=|Wx-y|_2^2$, where $x\in\mathbb{R}^d$, $y\in\mathbb{R}^m$ and the learner is the empirical risk minimizer of minimal Frobenius norm, we prove that the minimal budget of weighted examples that recovers the full-data loss on every finite dataset is exactly $n^*(d,m)=(m+1)d$. We further determine two more values of the weighted selection profile $F_w(d,m,n)$: at the near-threshold budget, $F_w(d,m,(m+1)d-1)=1+\frac{1}{dm^2}$, and at the spanning budget, $F_w(d,m,d)=d+1$ for every $m$, while $F_w(d,m,n)=\infty$ for $n<d$. For the smallest open intermediate cell $(d,m)=(2,2)$ we prove $F_w(2,2,3)\in[13/8,15/8]$ and $F_w(2,2,4)\in[5/4,3/2]$, reduce the conjectured exact values $13/8$ and $5/4$ to a finite moment problem on the circle with at most seven atoms, and establish strong structural evidence for the conjecture. The upper-bound techniques (a fixed-basis conic compression lemma, a determinant-facet rigidity theorem for maximal certificates, and sharp sparsification lemmas for zero-mean weighted point systems) are of independent interest. As a byproduct we correct an erroneous claim circulating in a recent unrefereed preprint, exhibiting an explicit dataset with $m=2$ on which no weighted selection of $2d$ points recovers the optimal loss. All results are new only for $m\ge 2$; the scalar case $m=1$ is due to Hanneke et al.