Safety Screening for Voltage Control in Active Distribution Grids via Distributionally Robust Conformal Screening
Authors: Sarra Bouchkati, Petros Ellinas, Adriana Geisler, Steffen Kortmann, Johanna Vorwerk, Spyros Chatzivasiliadis, Andreas Ulbig
Abstract
Deploying a new control policy for voltage control in active distribution grids requires evidence that physical limits will be satisfied before the policy is tested on the physical grid. This assessment is difficult for two reasons. First, simulations cannot capture every disturbance, modeling error, and device interaction present in the real grid. Second, historical measurements reflect operation under existing control policies, whereas a new policy may drive the grid into different operating conditions. To address these challenges, we propose Distributionally Robust Conformal Safety Screening (DR-CSS), a policy-agnostic framework for pre-deployment, scenario-by-scenario screening of a new control policy using historical data and a nominal simulator. For each new scenario, the simulator predicts a future voltage trajectory for the whole grid; DR-CSS then constructs a conformal safety interval around this prediction using historical simulation-to-reality errors. The interval is further enlarged to account for closed-loop changes induced by the deployment of the new policy and its interactions with the remaining controllers. To the best of our knowledge, DR-CSS is the first framework in power systems to combine historical data from an existing control policy with an imperfect simulator for pre-deployment safety screening of a new policy. Experiments on the IEEE 33-bus and IEEE 141-bus systems evaluate the deployment of learning-based voltage control policies and show that DR-CSS identifies all unsafe test scenarios. To reduce unnecessary warnings on safe scenarios, we adapt the safety intervals to different operating conditions and gradually introduce new policies with recalibration after each stage. These extensions increase the informational value of the safety screening and support safer deployment decisions in active distribution grids.
Real-time N-1 contingency screening in an energy management system trades assurance against cost: verifying every credible outage with full power flow is too slow, while fast linear-sensitivity screening gives no statistical guarantee and can silently pass unsafe operating points, especially when a controller drives the system into unfamiliar regimes. This paper introduces Audited Selective Verification, a risk-budgeted screening and triage layer for any controller's output (optimization, model-predictive, or learned). A cheap surrogate proposes which outages to skip; an online audit runs full power flow on a small random sample each window; and a calibrated threshold certifies a thermal-violation-rate bound for the skipped set at a chosen budget and confidence, with a corresponding bound for the unverified trusted subset. Validity rests on real verification and the audit rather than on surrogate accuracy, so it holds under arbitrary deployment shift. It is a risk-budgeted screen, not a replacement for deterministic verification when policy requires checking every credible contingency. On three public transmission systems up to 1354 buses, the realized violation rate stays within budget, standard deterministic and calibrated screens become unsafe under shift, and the method cuts full power-flow studies by 29 to 75 percent per real-time operating point.
Increases in photovoltaic generation, charging of electric vehicles and heat-pump demand challenge operating limits in low-voltage distribution grids. This requires curative curtailment methods that can operate under sparse observability, noisy measurements, and imperfect grid models. Unlike prior end-to-end reinforcement-learning approaches for partially observable curtailment, this work decouples congestion detection and control by combining a random-forest violation pre-classifier with an actor-critic controller, and evaluates its robustness to measurement noise and grid-parameter mismatch. The framework is tested on a real low-voltage grid using synthetic future operating scenarios with low observability and controllability. With accurate grid parameters, the controller reduces total violation magnitude by 98.9%, and this performance remains nearly unchanged under the tested measurement-noise settings. Grid-model mismatch proves to be more challenging, but the controller still mitigates most violations under the tested mismatch assumptions.
Deep reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising route to real-time power grid operation, yet large neural policies are costly to evaluate, hard to deploy on constrained hardware, and opaque to operators. We ask whether a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent for grid topology control can be compressed into compact tree-based surrogates without losing operational performance. A PPO teacher is trained on Grid2Op's standard 14-bus environment with a stability-oriented reward, using stress-focused data collection on critical, high-loading states. The policy is then distilled into a decision tree and a random forest. Across held-out validation episodes, both surrogates exceed the teacher in mean reward and survival length at a fraction of the inference cost. The decision tree shows high exact-action agreement with the PPO argmax and near-complete agreement within its top-ranked actions, while remaining small enough to be inspected directly. Feature-importance analysis reveals a representational shift: the PPO policy relies mainly on line-loading signals, while the distilled tree is driven primarily by bus-topology variables. These results suggest that stress-focused distillation can convert a black-box neural controller into a lightweight, auditable rule-like surrogate suited for real-time deployment, while also surfacing risks tied to deterministic actions and topology-specific generalization.