Assessing Alignment and Stability of Feature Importance Explanations via Weight of Evidence
Authors: Eddie Conti, Claudio Daka, Álvaro Parafita, Antonio L. Alfeo, Axel Brando, Mario G. C. A. Cimino
Organizations: Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain · University of Florence, Florence, Italy · SMARTEST Research Center, eCampus University, Novedrate, Italy · Dept. of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, eCampus University, Novedrate, Italy · Dept Information Engineering, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Feature importance Methods (FIMs) are widely used in Explainable AI to interpret model predictions, yet attribution scores alone often provide limited insight into the underlying reasoning process. In this work, we introduce a novel perspective by embedding FIMs within a hypothesis-testing framework based on Weight of Evidence (WoE). We quantify how strongly the observed evidence supports any given hypothesis on feature importance. The reference hypothesis can stem from domain knowledge, ground truth, or be derived from the FIM itself. This formulation enables a principled evaluation of FIMs, capturing both their alignment with prior knowledge and their variability. We further provide theoretical results linking WoE to attribution variance. Empirical results shows the applicability and flexibility of our strategy analyzing LIME and SHAP explanations in settings with different reference hypotheses. Overall, our framework offers a complementary tool for assessing FIMs through a contrastive, evidence-based lens.
Assessing the importance of individual features in Machine Learning is critical to understand the model's decision-making process. While numerous methods exist, the lack of a definitive ground truth for comparison highlights the need for alternative, well-founded measures. This paper introduces a novel post-hoc local feature importance method called Counterfactual Importance Distribution (CID). We generate two sets of positive and negative counterfactuals, model their distributions using Kernel Density Estimation, and rank features based on a distributional dissimilarity measure. This measure, grounded in a rigorous mathematical framework, satisfies key properties required to function as a valid metric. We showcase the effectiveness of our method by comparing with well-established local feature importance explainers. Our method not only offers complementary perspectives to existing approaches, but also improves performance on faithfulness metrics (both for comprehensiveness and sufficiency), resulting in more faithful explanations of the system. These results highlight its potential as a valuable tool for model analysis. Link to repository: https://github.com/EddieConti/CID
Explanations of machine learning models are usually judged by criteria that are hard to compare. We propose a simpler test: if an explanation really describes how a model uses its features, it should be possible to rebuild the model's predictions from it. We turn each explanation into a predictor by reading each feature's effect and adding them up, and measure how well that predictor reproduces the model on unseen data. Nothing is fitted, so the score reflects the explanation itself. The test applies to any explanation that can be written as a function of the features; we demonstrate it on partial dependence plots (PDP), accumulated local effects (ALE), SHAP and LIME. We prove that summing partial dependence curves gives the best possible additive summary of a model when its features are independent, and that this fails when they are dependent. Across 13 real datasets and 9 synthetic designs and four model families, which method scores best depends entirely on feature dependence: where features are independent SHAP is slightly worse than PDP, exactly as the theory predicts; on dependent real data SHAP leads. Some widely used quality metrics even prefer a damaged explanation to an intact one.
Attribution methods (AMs) assign an importance score to each feature and are widely adopted to explain black-box models. However, most methods can produce variable attribution scores due to stochastic components in their definition. In this paper, we propose a distribution-based framework to capture the stability of attribution scores. In particular, our approach allows to understand the degree of separability in the ranked attribution vector and obtain the largest index for which a feature ranking remains reliable. We further extend this framework to compare AMs based on the robustness of their rankings across a dataset. Through experiments, we demonstrate how to apply our method to evaluate explainer stability. Overall, our approach provides a complementary criterion for evaluating the stability of AMs.