stat.MLSep 1, 2026

Matched Queries for Curvature and Density at Branching Junctions

Authors: Ziqi ZhaoQingjian Ni

Organizations: School of Computer Science and Engineering Southeast University Nanjing, China

Abstract

At a junction, a score field can reveal weighted tangent rays, yet these first-order quantities do not determine how individual branches bend or how their densities change away from the center. Recovering this missing information is necessary for describing local continuation beyond a single point, but finite observations must separate branchwise second-order effects while allowing error in the estimated center. We address this inverse problem using matched score queries at noise scales σσ and λσλσ. For a finite union of C2,αC^{2,α} half-branches in RD\mathbb{R}^D, the normalized score has the expansion Fσ=F0+σG+O(σ1+α)F_σ=F_0+σG+O(σ^{1+α}). Matched subtraction cancels the tangent contribution and exposes GG, which depends linearly on branchwise curvature and log-density slope. Given tangent directions and weights on distinct rays, GG uniquely identifies all sDsD branch parameters, and sDsD scalar component observations are necessary. An O(σ2)O(σ^2) center error introduces DD translation modes, leading to (s+1)D(s+1)D observations under full-rank calibration, except for a translation-invariant full line. We also establish a perturbation bound and a conditional kernel-density-estimation rate. Experiments reproduce the predicted population and N1/5N^{-1/5} trends and remain full rank up to D=20D=20 with 16 supplied branches. In end-to-end tests for D=3D=3--55, a known-count first-order frontend yields full rank in all 135 population systems and a median relative jet error of 0.132. With strong first-order error, matched responses reduce median parameter error by a factor of 49.4 relative to naive tangent subtraction.

Explore similar work

Aug 31, 2026stat.ML

Estimating Population-Risk Curves Along Nonconvex Gradient Flows from the Training Sample

We estimate the conditional population-risk curve of a realized smooth nonconvex gradient flow from the training sample. Flow approximate leave-one-out (Flow-ALO) propagates a deletion response and evaluates omitted observations at approximate deleted paths. The risk-curve error decomposes into response approximation, exact-LOO fluctuation, and deletion-to-full risk transfer. On each fixed finite horizon, bounded centered training-loss gradients, a one-sided Hessian lower bound, locally Lipschitz Hessians, and a strict tube-closure condition yield an explicit (n1)2(n-1)^{-2} bound for the deletion-response error. Bounded evaluation-loss gradients transfer the deletion-response bound to the score without requiring the Hessian to be invertible. Direct first-order jackknife cancellation and exact-LOO concentration control deletion-to-full risk transfer and fluctuation, respectively, completing recovery of the conditional population-risk curve. For bounded smooth two-layer mean-field networks training both layers, the score-error bound is uniform in width.
Mingzhi Song
May 25, 2026stat.ML

Rao-Blackwellized Score Matching on Manifolds

We study denoising score matching (DSM) when the latent distribution is supported on a smooth embedded manifold MRDM \subset \mathbb{R}^D. Under ambient Gaussian corruption, the tangent denoising target contains a singular normal-fiber noise channel whose variance diverges as d/σ2d/σ^2 as σ0+σ\to 0^+. We show that conditioning on the nearest-point projection π(X)π(X) canonically removes this singularity: the resulting conditional expectation is the unique L2L^2-optimal Rao-Blackwellized predictor of the tangent DSM target among all estimators depending only on the projected observation π(X)π(X). We then compute the small-noise expansion of this canonical target and show that it equals the intrinsic Riemannian score up to an explicit order-σ2σ^2 correction that decomposes into an intrinsic Tweedie term and an extrinsic curvature term involving the Weingarten and Ricci operators. In the flat case, the construction reduces exactly to ordinary lower-dimensional Gaussian DSM, while on SdS^d the extrinsic correction simplifies to the scalar factor (1d/2)Mlogq(1-d/2)\nabla_M \log q; this extrinsic σ2σ^2 correction cancels identically on S2S^2, though the intrinsic Tweedie term remains.
Divit Rawal
May 30, 2026stat.ME

Causal Density Functions

We introduce causal density functions: Radon-Nikodym derivatives that compare interventional laws to observational laws and therefore act as local density ratios for causal effects. Whereas many causal-strength measures compare whole distributions after graph surgery, causal density functions provide a pointwise change-of-measure object that can be estimated, calibrated, and used to score directed influence. The basic identity Edo[f(Y)]=Eobs ⁣[f(Y)ρ(X,Y)]\mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{do}}[f(Y)] = \mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{obs}}\!\left[f(Y)ρ(X,Y)\right] makes causal density directly testable: if the estimated density ratio is correct, observational expectations reweighted by ρρ reproduce interventional expectations. We derive practical estimators for do-curves and directed edge scores, relate the construction to Radon-Nikodym/Kan semantics for conditioning and intervention, and evaluate the resulting estimators on synthetic and real perturbation benchmarks.
Sridhar Mahadevan