Predicting Subsurface Abnormalities Growth using Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) provide a framework for integrating physical laws with data. However, their application to Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) remains constrained by the limited uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities. Most existing PINN-based prognostics approaches are deterministic or account only for epistemic uncertainty, limiting their suitability for risk-aware decision-making. This work introduces a heteroscedastic Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Network (B-PINN) framework that jointly models epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, yielding full predictive posteriors for spatiotemporal insulation material ageing estimation. The approach integrates Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) with physics-based residual enforcement and prior distributions, enabling probabilistic inference within a physics-informed learning architecture. The framework is evaluated on transformer insulation ageing application, validated with a finite-element thermal model and field measurements from a solar power plant, and benchmarked against deterministic PINNs, dropout-based PINNs (d-PINNs), and alternative B-PINN variants. Results show that the proposed B-PINN provides improved predictive accuracy and better-calibrated uncertainty estimates than competing approaches. A systematic sensitivity study further analyzes the impact of boundary-condition, initial-condition, and residual sampling strategies on accuracy, calibration, and generalization, and the influence of measurement noise on aleatoric uncertainty. Overall, the findings highlight the capability of Bayesian physics-informed learning to support uncertainty-aware prognostics and informed decision-making in transformer asset management by tracking aleatoric and epistemic sources of uncertainty.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have recently emerged as a promising approach for solving Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), offering a meshfree alternative that integrates physical principles into the learning process. This presents a new paradigm compared to traditional discretization methods and purely data-driven machine learning techniques. While promising, PINNs are not a panacea; they inherit challenges such as spectral bias and unstable convergence. Moreover, their potential in seismology remains largely unexplored. In this work, we provide a robust and critical assessment of PINNs for solving the elastic wave equation in seismology. We investigate the performance of PINNs on problems with varying degrees of complexity across various seismic sources and parameter models, from constant to highly heterogeneous settings. A pivotal aspect of our work involves investigating whether embedding physical principles directly into the network architecture enhances convergence and accuracy. We test an extensive range of neural architecture designs, from unrestricted, uninformed PINNs to highly specialized ones. We find that integrating an understanding of wave physics into the network design significantly improves accuracy. For instance, introducing a custom wavelet or plane wave layer, coupled with encoder and decoder layers, consistently yields a relative $L_2$ error approximately half that of the standard PINN, as evidenced across numerous experiments. We further demonstrate that this novel architecture enhances accuracy when applied to the acoustic wave equation, underlying the versatility of our network. Another key contribution of our research is the successful conditioning of PINNs on seismic source locations. This signifies a considerable advancement towards rapid seismic hazard detection and seismic analysis.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) offer a mesh-free framework for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), yet training often suffers from gradient pathologies, spectral bias, and poor convergence, especially for problems with strong nonlinearity, sharp gradients, or multiscale features. We propose the Curriculum-Guided Gaussian Mixture Physics-Informed Neural Network (CGMPINN), which integrates Gaussian mixture modeling with dynamic curriculum learning. Specifically, a GMM is periodically fitted to the PDE residual distribution to quantify spatially varying learning difficulty. A smooth curriculum schedule progressively shifts training focus from easy to harder regions, while precision-based variance modulation suppresses unreliable clusters during early optimization. This dual curriculum is governed by a shared curriculum parameter and can be combined with self-adaptive loss balancing. We further establish theoretical guarantees, including sublinear convergence of the gradient norm for the induced time-varying loss, uniform equivalence between the curriculum-weighted and standard PDE losses, and a generalization bound with an explicit weighting-induced bias characterization. Experiments on six benchmark PDEs spanning elliptic, parabolic, hyperbolic, advection-dominated, and nonlinear reaction-diffusion types show that CGMPINN consistently achieves the lowest relative $L_2$ and maximum absolute errors among all compared methods, reducing relative $L_2$ error by up to 97.8% over the standard PINN at comparable cost. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Mathematics-Yang/CGMPINN.