</think> Doesn't Stop Reasoning: Analysis of Spurious CoT Termination

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is the dominant paradigm for inference-time scaling in language models, yet the causal influence of individual steps on the final answer poorly understood. We estimate each step's causal importance via early exit and use this measure to study how answers form across the reasoning traces of several model families. Across diverse tasks, we find that reasoning typically crosses a \emph{commitment boundary} -- a sharp transition from transient intermediate guesses to a stable, high-confidence answer. This transition often happens in a single step, well before the model's reasoning block ends, and is followed by \emph{epiphenomenal} CoT steps that leave the final answer probability unaltered. Using attention probes, we show that answer-formation stages can be linearly decoded from intermediate reasoning steps with high accuracy and generalize robustly to unseen reasoning tasks. We exploit this signal to early-exit reasoning blocks at the commitment boundary, reducing the length of CoTs up to 55% on average with negligible impact on model performance.

Long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) traces can improve reasoning accuracy, but repeatedly generating them is costly for smaller or latency-constrained language models. This paper studies a practical alternative: produce a rich rationale once with a capable \emph{thinking} model, compress it, and reuse the compressed trace as context for a cheaper \emph{answering} model. We introduce CoT-X, an adaptive framework for cross-model CoT transfer. CoT-X segments reasoning traces into semantic units, scores their diagnostic and logical importance, selects budget-feasible evidence paths, and reconstructs a coherent compressed rationale for the answering model. On $7,501$ Japanese medical licensing questions spanning $10$ specialties, CoT-X improves accuracy over direct truncation by up to $40.5\%$ under the same token budget, with the largest gains at $64$--$256$ tokens. Across $64$ thinking--answering pairs from eight DeepSeek-R1 and Qwen3 models (1.5B--32B parameters), reasoning transfer is most reliable within a model family, yet remains effective across families once compression normalizes the trace. A Gaussian Process Bayesian optimization layer finds near-optimal model--budget configurations with $15$ evaluations rather than an exhaustive search over all $64$ pairs, reducing evaluation cost by $84\%$. These results show that reasoning quality, token budget, and model compatibility can be optimized jointly, making CoT-style reasoning more practical under realistic deployment constraints.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) achieve strong performance by generating long chains of thought (CoT), but often overthink, continuing to reason after a solution has already stabilized and thereby wasting tokens and increasing latency. Existing inference-time early-exit methods rely primarily on answer-level signals, such as confidence or trial-answer consistency, to decide when to stop. However, these signals mainly reflect answer readiness rather than reasoning convergence: they may trigger before the model has finished exploring or self-correcting, causing premature exits that can degrade final-answer accuracy and leave the retained reasoning chain semantically incomplete. We identify reasoning-level semantic redundancy as a complementary signal for semantic-preserving early exit: when successive steps no longer add novel progress and instead revisit established conclusions, the reasoning trajectory has likely converged. Building on this insight, we propose PUMA, a plug-and-play framework that combines a lightweight Redundancy Detector with answer-level verification. The detector flags semantically redundant candidate exits, while verification confirms whether stopping is safe, allowing PUMA to remove redundant continuation while preserving both answer accuracy and a coherent reasoning prefix. Across five LRMs and five challenging reasoning benchmarks, PUMA achieves 26.2% average token reduction while preserving accuracy and retained CoT quality. Additional experiments on code generation, zero-shot vision-language reasoning, and learned stopping-policy internalization further demonstrate that reasoning-level redundancy is a robust, transferable, and learnable signal for efficient reasoning. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/giovanni-vaccarino/PUMA}.