Mitigating Disease Spread by Design in Refugee and IDP Camps

Artificial Intelligence agents based on large language models provide convenient natural language interfaces to scientific software, but reliability is not automatic. Here we introduce the Epydemix Agent Framework, an additive layer over Epydemix, an open-source Python library for stochastic compartmental epidemic modeling. The framework extends the library with four capabilities to facilitate interaction with an AI agent: discovery of available models and parameters, preventive validation of a declarative scenario specification, execution through tested library code, and inspectability of results. These capabilities let an agent handle the entire modeling process, from the natural-language description of the scenario to quantitative results, figures, and interpretation of findings without writing custom code. Each step reads input files and saves results in a separate output bundle, making the process auditable and reproducible. First, we show the end-to-end workflow with a case study comparing vaccination strategies for a novel respiratory virus. Second, we assessed the framework across 50 agent sessions and five modeling tasks by comparing the agent use of the framework against the direct use of the Python interface. The framework reduced turns, output tokens, and cost on most tasks, unless it trades resources for per-point reproducibility.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are commonly used tools for controlling infectious disease transmission when pharmaceutical options are unavailable. Yet, identifying effective interventions that minimize societal disruption remains challenging. Agent-based simulation is a popular tool for analyzing the impact of possible interventions in epidemiology. However, automatically optimizing NPIs using agent-based simulations poses a complex problem because, in agent-based epidemiological models, interventions can target individuals based on multiple attributes, affect hierarchical group structures (e.g., schools, workplaces, and families), and be combined arbitrarily, resulting in a very large or even infinite search space. We aim to support decision-makers with our Agent-based Infectious Disease Intervention Optimization System (ADIOS) that optimizes NPIs for infectious disease simulations using Grammar-Guided Genetic Programming (GGGP). The core of ADIOS is a domain-specific language for expressing NPIs in agent-based simulations that structures the intervention search space through a context-free grammar. To make optimization more efficient, the search space can be further reduced by defining constraints that prevent the generation of semantically invalid intervention patterns. Using this constrained language and an interface that enables coupling with agent-based simulations, ADIOS adopts the GGGP approach for simulation-based optimization. Using the German Epidemic Micro-Simulation System (GEMS) as a case study, we demonstrate the potential of our approach to generate optimal interventions for realistic epidemiological models

Human behaviour during epidemics affects infectious disease dynamics, but quantifying this remains deeply challenging. Here we introduce the Epi-LLM framework: a novel integration of agent-based modelling, real-life epigames, and large language models (LLMs) in which a synthetic society of agents reasons and adapts dynamically over an outbreak contact network. Comparing synthetic agent behaviour against a no-intervention SEIR baseline and human participant data from the AUIB epigame study, we find that LLM agents across four different architectures reduced peak active infections, with quarantine compliance peaking at 58-65% on day six of the 15-day simulation. A binomial generalised linear model showed that perceived health severity was the strongest predictor of quarantine behaviour ($β= 0.33, p = 0.002$), yielding a pseudo-$R^2$ of 0.055, comparable to the 0.072 observed in the human trial. LLM architecture is a key determinant of epidemic dynamics: low-variance architectures offer greater internal validity for testing behavioural rules, while high-variance models may better represent real-world decision-making. Geographic labels alone do not induce culturally differentiated behaviour; explicit attitudinal parameterisation is required. This proof-of-principle work lays the groundwork for deploying the Epi-LLM framework as a scalable, risk-free simulation environment for pandemic preparedness research.