physics.soc-phSep 4, 2026

Mitigating Disease Spread by Design in Refugee and IDP Camps

Authors: Giulia Zarpellon, Joseph Aylett-Bullock, Frank Krauss, Miguel Luengo-Oroz

Organizations: United Nations Global Pulse · Institute of Data Science, Durham University

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Abstract

Disease spread represents an increasing challenge in refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements. The movement and interaction of people within camps is influenced by their layout, which therefore has the potential to significantly affect disease spread. This work aims at creating a methodology to explore the potential effects of different camp layouts as mitigating factors in the spread of diseases within settlements. We showcase proof-of-concept experiments by leveraging the JUNE agent-based epidemic model, discuss the kind of operational insights this methodology can facilitate, and provide a framework for future investigations.

Figures & tables

Figure 1: (a) A region building block. (b, c, d) Details of grid-like camp structure found in Zaatari (Jordan), Qushtapa (Iraq), Wau (South Sudan). Image details are from UNHCR (2019) ; UNHCR (2014) ; UNHCR (2017) .
Figure 2: Abstractions for venues positioning in square virtual camps with four regions.
Figure 3: Infection curves (left) and radius of gyration distribution (right), in 16-regions settlement.
Figure 4: Distribution of the average volume of co-sharing users in the 4-regions setting.
Appendix figures & tables6 assets

Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.

Appendix

Figure 5: Population age/sex distribution in the Zaatari reference camp.
Venue typeBaseline per-capitaReference
Distribution center1 / 20,000IOM, NRC, UNHCR (2015)
Non-food distribution center1 / 20,000IOM, NRC, UNHCR (2015)
E-voucher outlet1 / 20,000Analogous to distribution points
Communal center1 / 5,000Aylett-Bullock et al. (2021b)
Safe space for women and girls1 / 5,000Aylett-Bullock et al. (2021b)
Religious center1 / 500Aylett-Bullock et al. (2021b)
Appendix
Table 1: List of considered venue types with their baseline per-capita parameters and reference source. Note that the per-capita for learning centers and play groups is applied to the children population only (ages between 3 and 17 years, included).
Figure 6: Visualizing user mobility with the radius of gyration. For seven agents located in different areas (x markers), assigned venues are identified with colored bubbles of size proportional to their visiting probability. Center of mass (+) and radius of gyration quantify the mobility extent of each user, for which we additionally report sex and age. For example, the average reach of person 101417 (black) is much smaller than that of person 80580 (yellow), the latter being a child assigned to a learning center far away from their household’s area. The underlying grid delineates areas in a 4-regions camp.
Figure 7: Infection curves (left) and radius of gyration distribution (right), in 4-regions settlement.
Figure 8: Infection curves disaggregated at sub-regional levels.
Figure 9: Distribution of the average volume of co-sharing users for a 25% sample of the population in the 16-regions setting.
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