Spatial Epidemic Modeling

Latest papers

17 papers5 papers in the last four weeks, against 2 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Learning and Forecasting Multiscale Spatiotemporal Epidemic Dynamics with Lagrangian-Eulerian Graph Neural ODEs
Oct 15, 2026Jinyi Duan, Qian Li, Biao TangEpidemic Forecasting Spatial Epidemic Modeling
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049, People’s Republic of China . · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, 710054, People’s Republic of China . · Center for Intersection of Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049, People’s Republic of China .
Conformalized Physics-Informed Weak Regression for Parameter Estimation in Epidemic Models
Oct 13, 2026Allan Peter Engsig-KarupSpatial Epidemic Modeling Parameter Estimation
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
Graph World Models for Constrained Epidemic Policy Planning
Sep 28, 2026Yiqi Su, Rashed Shelim, Lingyi Wang +2Action-Conditioned World Models Graph-Based Planning
Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA 22305, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA 22305, USA
Hybrid epidemic simulation framework coupling equation-based and individual-based models
Sep 28, 2026Jaeyoung Kwak, Michael H. Lees, Chin Chun Ooi +1Epidemic Forecasting Agent-Based Modeling
College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore · Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands · Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore
Driving Epidemic Models with AI Agents: the Epydemix Agent Framework
Sep 23, 2026Nicolò Gozzi, Ciro Cattuto, Alessandro VespignaniAI Agents for Scientific Discovery LLM Agent Harnesses
ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy · Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
Mitigating Disease Spread by Design in Refugee and IDP Camps
Sep 4, 2026Giulia Zarpellon, Joseph Aylett-Bullock, Frank Krauss +1Spatial Epidemic Modeling Urban Planning
United Nations Global Pulse · Institute of Data Science, Durham University
Prompt Sensitivity of Generative Agents: Evidence from an Epidemic Model
Aug 26, 2026Ross Williams, Niyousha HosseinichimehSpatial Epidemic Modeling Prompt Sensitivity
Industrial and Systems Engineering, Virginia Tech; Alexandria, VA 22305, USA.
GeoID-PINN: Identifiability-Aware Regional Epidemic Inference with Geographic Coupling
Jul 28, 2026Weixiong Hua, Fan BuEpidemic Forecasting Parameter Identifiability
Department of Biostatistics · University of Michigan · Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Beyond Time Series: Spatial Reasoning for Epidemic Forecasting via Multimodal Learning
Jun 20, 2026Diana Guadalupe Gomez, Chenwei Wu, Zhiyi Wang +2Epidemic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Reasoning
University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI, USA
Benchmarking Counterfactual Prediction in Epidemic Time Series with Time-Varying Interventions
Jun 4, 2026Wenhao Mu, Facundo Yan, Anik Mumssen +2Forecasting Benchmarks Counterfactual Prediction
University of Michigan · Computer Science and Engineering · Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA +1
The Epi-LLM Framework: probing LLM behavioral priors through epidemiological agent-based models
Jun 1, 2026Petra Ferencz, Ava Keeling, Tobias O'Keefe +4Human Behavior Simulation LLM Agent Evaluation
Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Center for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom · Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom · Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom +3
Spatio-temporal stochastic graph-based learning for infectious disease forecasting
May 28, 2026Luz Stefani Sotomayor Valenzuela, Susanna Cramb, Darren WraithEpidemic Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia · QUT Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
SpatialEpiBench: Benchmarking Spatial Information and Epidemic Priors in Forecasting
May 7, 2026Ruiqi Lyu, Alistair Turcan, Bryan WilderEpidemic Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks
1Carnegie Mellon University
Deep Generative Spatiotemporal Engression for Probabilistic Forecasting of Epidemics
Mar 7, 2026Rajdeep Pathak, Tanujit ChakrabortyEpidemic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
SAFIR, Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · SCAI, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
Learning graph topology from metapopulation epidemic encoder-decoder
Mar 2, 2026Xin Li, Jonathan Cohen, Shai Pilosof +1Graph Structure Learning Spatial Epidemic Modeling
Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be’er Sheva, South District, Israel · Department of Life Sciences, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be’er Sheva, South District, Israel · The Goldman Sonnenfeldt School of Sustainability and Climate Change, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be’er Sheva, South District, Israel
Prior Knowledge-enhanced Spatio-temporal Epidemic Forecasting
Feb 25, 2026Sijie Ruan, Jinyu Li, Jia Wei +7Epidemic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Beijing Institute of Technology, China · Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China · Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China +6
A Hybrid ABM-PDE Framework for Real-World Infectious Disease Simulations
Apr 11, 2025Kristina Kehrer, Tim O. F. ConradDynamical Systems Agent-Based Modeling
Zuse Institute Berlin Berlin, 14195

Oct 15, 2026J/K move · Enter open · S save

Learning and Forecasting Multiscale Spatiotemporal Epidemic Dynamics with Lagrangian-Eulerian Graph Neural ODEs

Jinyi Duan, Qian Li, Biao Tang

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049, People’s Republic of China . · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, 710054, People’s Republic of China . · Center for Intersection of Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049, People’s Republic of China .

Epidemic Forecasting Spatial Epidemic Modeling Spatiotemporal GNNs Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Neural ODEs Explainable Time Series Forecasting

Open paper AskPDF arXiv

Accurate medium- to long-range epidemic forecasting requires extrapolating high-dimensional, heterogeneous and nonstationary dynamics from partial observations. Yet hybrid models often leave implicit which observations inform which epidemic processes and how learned graph interactions modify system state. We introduce LE-EpiGNODE, which replaces generic message passing with process-specific, mechanism-guided neural operators: age-contact information drives Lagrangian infection generation, whereas mobility drives conservative Eulerian population transport within a structure-preserving universal differential equation. We evaluated LE-EpiGNODE across 14 controlled synthetic mechanisms spanning time-modulated, state-dependent, nonlinear and coupled dynamics, three complementary COVID-19 settings, 21 comparator models and five targeted ablations. Forecasting gains tended to become more pronounced at longer horizons; at the longest horizon, LE-EpiGNODE achieved the lowest WMAPE in all three real-world datasets, reducing error by 17.7-40.0% relative to the best baseline. Controlled ablations linked these gains to the Lagrangian-Eulerian decomposition and process-aligned priors, while synthetic ground truth showed that learned operators and induced state fluxes track known generating dynamics. These results support mechanism-organized graph neural dynamics as a route to reliable long-horizon extrapolation with directly testable, process-level mechanistic interpretation beyond trajectory accuracy.