Orchestra: Corroboration-Based Regulatory Candidate Discovery via Composed Bioinformatics MCP Agents

CASCADE is an agentic framework that predicts downstream transcriptional effects of gene perturbation from precomputed ARACNe regulatory networks, exposed via MCP. Prior work validates such tools by checking whether predicted genes are known cancer genes (membership); we instead test whether the predicted direction of change matches reality, using focal-gene copy-number amplification as a dosage-based proxy for the inverse of knockdown against real TCGA patient tumor data. For MYC, CASCADE's predicted knockdown targets show strong concordance with real amplified-vs-non-amplified tumor expression across three cancer types (BRCA: 90.0%, COAD: 72.0%, STAD: 85.7%; all p<0.0013), well above permutation baselines, surviving a PAM50 subtype control and replicating in an independent cohort (METABRIC, 87.2%). Compared against curated MSigDB gene-set baselines via Fisher's exact test, CASCADE's accuracy is not shown to exceed existing public knowledge of MYC- or E2F-driven biology, though its gene-specific direction-calling clearly outperforms a naive uniform guess. Extending to fifteen additional genes, validation proves gene-specific rather than universal: proliferation-machinery regulators mostly replicate, while lineage-identity transcription factors and one cyclin-D paralog (CCND2) consistently fail, a pattern we discuss as a hedged, post-hoc hypothesis. We separately benchmark whether an LLM-based agent correctly grounds natural-language requests into CASCADE's real MCP tool calls. Across 35 queries, a documented local model reaches 71.4% exact match (85.7% for a larger model); schema and gene-alias failures are resolved by scale or server-side correction, but both models confidently default to the wrong perturbation type on ambiguous queries, a failure a targeted fix could not resolve because its trigger condition never occurs.

Cooperative gene regulation often depends on groups of regulators acting jointly, but most gene regulatory network (GRN) inference methods output pairwise regulator-target rankings. We introduce Bottleneck-Aware Regulator-Set Inference and Diagnosis (BRIDGE), a framework for complete regulator-set recovery, and Targeted Recovery Attribution for Cooperative Evaluation (TRACE), a diagnostic suite that attributes failures to retrieval, set-level scoring, decoding, and evaluation bottlenecks. TRACE includes a leak-free mechanism-mismatch cooperativity stress test in which cooperative targets are generated by random nonlinear mechanisms rather than product interactions. This design avoids feature-mechanism circularity: Residual higher-order set scoring (Residual HOS2) operates on raw expression vectors without handcrafted product-correlation features. Across 30 matched seed-cooperativity settings, Residual HOS2 improves Jaccard similarity from 0.382 to 0.460, recall from 0.522 to 0.597, and exact recovery from 0.053 to 0.113 over a decomposable pairwise set scorer (PairS2), although exact recovery remains low. On SERGIO DS3, oracle retrieval and TRACE show that candidate coverage is necessary but insufficient because set-level misranking remains the dominant source of exact-recovery failure. PairS2 proposal followed by Residual HOS2 reranking reduces HOS2-scored candidate sets by 94-97% while largely preserving exact-recovery behavior. These results distinguish edge ranking, candidate retrieval, set-level scoring, and exact cooperative regulator-set recovery as separate objectives.

Biological systems exhibit a hierarchical structure, characterised by directed flow from upstream regulators to downstream effects. Although this ordering provides a natural scaffold for causal inference, most causal discovery and GRN methods either ignore the tiered organisation or condition on all upstream variables, which becomes infeasible for high-dimensional omics data. We present ASCEND (Ancestral Scalable Causal discovEry via iNherited Descent), a constraint-based framework that leverages known two-tiered structure to enable genome-scale causal discovery. ASCEND introduces a divide-and-conquer strategy that maintains dynamically updated ancestral conditioning sets for each downstream variable, dramatically reducing the number of conditional independence tests required, and achieves polynomial-time complexity where traditional approaches face exponential blow-up. Through extensive simulations and real biological data, we demonstrate that ASCEND accurately recovers ancestral relationships, scales properly and much faster, and outperforms existing gene regulatory network inference methods in both causal precision and computational efficiency. The algorithm's ability to resolve directionality makes it particularly suited for integrating multi-omic data where upstream regulators (e.g., SNPs, methylation sites) and downstream responses (e.g., gene expression) are measured jointly.