Emotion as a Distribution: Joint Valence-Arousal Probability Learning for Speaker-Independent Multimodal Emotion Recognition

Softmax-based multimodal emotion recognition methods often assign high confidence even when sensor data are corrupted or contradictory, for example when facial expressions suggest positive valence while vocal prosody indicates negative arousal. We present an Evidential Multimodal Transformer with Dempster-Shafer Fusion (EMT-DS) that addresses this problem through formal uncertainty quantification. EMT-DS models predictions as Subjective Opinions (Dirichlet distributions), separating epistemic uncertainty (lack of evidence) from aleatoric uncertainty (sensor noise). Modality-specific transformer encoders produce belief mass distributions that are fused with Dempster's Rule of Combination, which normalizes the joint belief mass by a conflict coefficient 1/(1-c), so that contradictory evidence is explicitly quantified as conflict and the fused prediction becomes diffuse rather than being forced into an unjustified consensus. Under subject-independent and speaker-independent evaluation on four benchmarks, EMT-DS achieves 84.3% accuracy on IEMOCAP versus 81.7% for the best baseline (p < 0.01), 82.4% on DEAP under leave-one-subject-out evaluation versus 78.1%, and 96.8% on the highly imbalanced KEMDy20, and it improves accuracy on CMU-MOSEI by 2.4 points over the strongest evidential baseline. In controlled ablation, it reduces Expected Calibration Error from 0.153 (softmax transformer) to 0.042. It maintains 71.2% accuracy under severe Gaussian noise on audio features (sigma = 1.0), where attention baselines drop to 45.3%, and degrades gracefully when entire modalities are absent. The fusion step has O(MK^2) complexity, compared with O(M^2 d^2) for cross-modal attention. The learned conflict metric also flags likely errors: reviewing 20% of samples captures 80% of misclassifications, which supports selective prediction in clinical and safety-critical systems.

Continuous emotion recognition in terms of valence and arousal under in-the-wild (ITW) conditions remains a challenging problem due to large variations in appearance, head pose, illumination, occlusions, and subject-specific patterns of affective expression. We present a multimodal method for valence-arousal estimation ITW. Our method combines three complementary modalities: face, behavior, and audio. The face modality relies on GRADA-based frame-level embeddings and Transformer-based temporal regression. We use Qwen3-VL-4B-Instruct to extract behavior-relevant information from video segments, while Mamba is used to model temporal dynamics across segments. The audio modality relies on WavLM-Large with attention-statistics pooling and includes a cross-modal filtering stage to reduce the influence of unreliable or non-speech segments. To fuse modalities, we explore two fusion strategies: a Directed Cross-Modal Mixture-of-Experts Fusion Strategy that learns interactions between modalities with adaptive weighting, and a Reliability-Aware Audio-Visual Fusion Strategy that combines visual features at the frame-level while using audio as complementary context. The results are reported on the Aff-Wild2 dataset following the 10th Affective Behavior Analysis in-the-Wild (ABAW) challenge protocol. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed multimodal fusion strategy achieves a Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC) of 0.658 on the Aff-Wild2 development set.

Affective computing increasingly relies on deep learning to represent emotions, yet latent spaces often remain opaque, high-dimensional black boxes. This paper investigates whether Transformers' embeddings recover the geometric regularities of Russell's circumplex model. We unify two complementary experiments testing the hypothesis that, after training models on text and speech, their resulting latent spaces encode a topology consistent with valence-arousal and reproduce human-like neighborhood relations. Specifically, we evaluate deep representations extracted from Transformer-based text (RoBERTa) and speech (wav2vec 2.0) encoders, along with a multimodal Transformer fusion architecture, across naturalistic datasets like MSP-Podcast and controlled LLM-generated stimuli. Our analysis reveals that multimodal fusion of text and audio yields perfect topological alignment with Russell's primary emotion ordering. Furthermore, in a zero-shot setting using generic text embeddings, projected fine-grained emotion terms fall close to their established human-mapped coordinates. Our contribution is a novel, data-driven framework for validating emotion models, demonstrating that Russell's circumplex structure is intrinsically encoded in the embeddings of these modalities rather than being solely an artifact of human labeling, thereby bridging the gap between psychological theory and representation learning.