Quantifying the Memorization-to-Generalization Transition: Scaling Laws and Phase Structure in Grokking

Delayed generalization (\ie~grokking) refers to the phenomenon in which a neural network fits its training data early in training but only begins to generalize after a prolonged delay, often through an abrupt transition. Despite extensive empirical study, its underlying mechanism remains poorly understood. In this work, we first theoretically characterize a shell--core topological configuration of the reachable solution space induced by Adam's optimization dynamics with weight-shrinkage regularization, supported by empirical evidence. This optimization-induced topological configuration gives rise to grokking. In model's parameter space, random initialization solutions concentrate on a thin outer spherical shell, enclosing another spherical shell of memorization solutions, which in turn contains a core corresponding to the generalization solutions. Leveraging stopping-time theory, we then analyze the geometry of this topological configuration and the solution transition time at which optimization trajectories escape the memorization manifold and first reach the boundary of the generalization manifold. Our theoretical analysis derives grokking scaling laws for the learning rate, batch size, and $\ell_2$ regularization coefficient, which are further validated through experiments and shown to recover results from prior literature.

Existing accounts of grokking explain the phenomena in terms of mechanistic frameworks such as circuit efficiency or lazy-to-rich transitions. However, despite a known dependence between grokking and model size, how model capacity shapes grokking remains an open question. We give an information-theoretic account of this relationship on the task of modular arithmetic, showing that grokking does not immediately occur when a model becomes large enough to memorise the training set, but rather emerges as the outcome of a competition between two measurable timescales: a memorisation speed $T_{\text{mem}}(P)$ and a generalisation speed $T_{\text{gen}}(P)$, both of which are functions of model parameter count $P$. Adapting the information capacity framework of Morris et al. (2025), we estimate $T_{\text{mem}}(P)$ on random-label data of equivalent complexity and $T_{\text{gen}}(P)$ on the modular task itself, and show that grokking emerges close to the parameter scale where these timescales intersect. The framework also suggests an empirical model for predicting memorisation speed given model capacity and dataset complexity, recovering the previously reported empirical observation that larger models memorise faster. Overall, we motivate the formalisation of different learning timescales as important abstractions to study when explaining how model capacity shapes grokking on algorithmic tasks.

In grokking an early fit to the training data separates from a much later improvement in generalization. During this delay, training can move from a fixed neural tangent kernel (NTK) regime to one in which task-relevant kernel eigendirections continue to evolve. We provide a quantitative theory for how this transition from lazy to rich learning can produce delayed generalization. For homogeneous networks trained with squared loss and $L_2$ weight decay, we show that a finite residual remains after memorization, with larger residual fractions in target components associated with smaller NTK eigenvalues. These residuals feed back into the dynamics of the NTK itself, and projecting the resulting dynamics onto task-relevant spectral directions yields a reduced system in which residual-driven kernel growth competes with weight decay. This system predicts that the grokking timescale is controlled by the product of learning rate and weight decay, that feature learning slows logarithmically near a critical decay above which task-aligned NTK structure can no longer support generalization, and that stronger decay can prevent fitting altogether. We test these predictions in modular addition. In a homogeneous MLP, task-aligned Fourier structure continues to emerge in the NTK after training accuracy has saturated, and an 84$\times$90-grid of trained networks across varying learning rate and weight decay recovers the predicted phase geometry and inverse-product scaling of the generalization time with learning rate and weight decay. A one-block Transformer shows similar macroscopic phase structure in a 42$\times$45-grid, as well as the same transition-time scaling despite violating exact homogeneity. Together, these results provide a mechanistic derivation connecting post-fit feature learning to both the onset of generalization and its phase structure in the learning rate and weight decay plane.