Fork Where the Model Changes Its Mind: Belief-Shift Branching for Tree-Structured Reinforcement Learning

Reward-based reinforcement learning for language models, exemplified by Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), collapses an entire stochastic trajectory into a single scalar reward. This is clean and scalable, but it explores and allocates reward inefficiently: a trajectory may contain many causal decisions, recovery attempts, and environment-randomness events, yet every token or action inherits one trajectory-level advantage. We study tree-based rollout construction as a compute-allocation problem for policy-gradient estimation. Our central claim is that branches should be placed not where the policy is merely uncertain, but where an additional branch most reduces uncertainty about the policy gradient per unit of compute. From a law-of-total-variance decomposition of the local policy-gradient random variable, we derive two allocation laws: new branches reduce decision uncertainty, while repeated suffix rollouts reduce continuation uncertainty. The resulting EPIG-Tree score allocates branches using the already computed rollouts. It estimates occupancy- and score-weighted value uncertainty, along with a suffix law $n_e \propto w_e \|\nabla_θ\log π(a_e|h_e)\| σ_e / \sqrt{c_e}$. Empirically, EPIG reduces gradient MSE in cloned-state control, winning in all nine dense continuous-control environments of a 13-environment sweep and recovering the reference gradient direction near-perfectly, and it improves frozen-LLM gradient calibration relative to entropy branching. In online single-turn math, tree-local credit beats flat GRPO, while branch placement is secondary to token-level credit assignment. In online multi-turn Wordle, EPIG attains the highest final win rate (0.850), overtaking flat GRPO, which saturates early at 0.790, and entropy branching as training proceeds, confirming that the gradient-estimation advantage transfers to a stateful, large-action setting.

Although reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has improved the performance of large language models (LLMs) across a variety of reasoning tasks, there is significant debate as to whether RLVR expands the reasoning capability boundary, or just improves sampling efficiency. In this paper, we investigate the nature of test-time exploration in RLVR-trained LLMs by employing controlled maze-solving experiments and extracting a tree structure from mathematical reasoning traces (BODHI-Trees) based on semantic equivalence. This helps us delineate between entropy arising from stylistic variations and genuine inferential branching. Our findings demonstrate that the policy entropy collapse observed in RLVR models is not merely syntactic, and is accompanied by a significant reduction in semantic branching entropy. While RLVR improves adherence to environmental constraints and backtracking capabilities, it constricts the space of continuations; we provide evidence suggesting that this might be responsible for the sample efficiency gains of RLVR, albeit at the cost of genuine rollout diversity.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) trains reasoning models without labeled trajectories, relying on grouped rollouts to expose the policy to alternative reasoning paths and a verifier to score them. Rollout diversity has accordingly emerged as a central bottleneck in RLVR, with most existing methods broadening exploration through temperature, prefix, or rollout-selection adjustments. We identify a structurally distinguished but overlooked position for broadening this diversity: the first token after the reasoning marker. The policy's first-token distribution exhibits a sharply peaked yet correctness-decoupled phenomenon, and this first token position can broaden the regions a rollout group covers without altering the correctness signal. We introduce REFT (Rollout Exploration with First-Token Diversification), a light addition to the RLVR pipeline that samples first tokens uniformly from the policy's own top-$N$ candidates and allocates rollouts evenly, leaving every other component unchanged. Trained on the resulting diversified rollouts, REFT improves aggregate Pass@1, Pass@8, and Pass@64 over DAPO and GRPO baselines across four base models (0.5B-7B) and three difficulty regimes.