We study a Marchenko--Pastur (MP) random-matrix approach to pruning deep neural networks with very small post-pruning fine-tuning budgets. The main practical contribution is accuracy retention under short calibration and fine-tuning schedules, rather than a long post-pruning reoptimization pipeline. The theory gives deterministic data-path certificates: if the removed component
R has small propagated logit effect
Ls∥Rψ1(s)∥∞, pruning decreases an elastic-net objective and preserves samples whose dense margin exceeds twice the perturbation. The zero-budget case gives perfect pruning; a prune--restore extension models weight restoration inside a fixed sparse-execution pattern; and an additive
L2-regularized model shows admissible random-like components vanish at the training limit, with persistent spikes stabilizing as the MP bulk collapses. Under iid-Gaussian sufficient conditions, the fitted MP edge
σ+ gives a high-probability layerwise budget signal. On ImageNet-1k, after only three distillation epochs, ViT-B/16
2:4+ToMe reaches
83.41% top-1 (
−1.70 pp from dense) at
59.81% sparse-execution MAC reduction, with
1.388× best-observed A40 native-
2:4 backend speedup for the same checkpoint and ToMe graph; a separate no-ToMe A100 endpoint gives
2.705×. At structured sparsity, ViT-B/16
6:12 reaches
83.74%, ViT-L/16
8:16 dense+permutation reaches
85.33% (
−0.51 pp), and ConvNeXtV2-Base
12:16 reaches
86.35% (
−0.37 pp). For CNNs, ResNet50
8:16 dense+permutation reaches
75.87% (
−0.26 pp), and ResNet152d CAST-conv+permutation reaches
81.33% (
−1.53 pp) at
∼50% MAC accounting with a
1.62× A40 im2col
+2:4 sparse-GEMM audit.