A Splitting Method for SDE Terminal-Law Estimation

Deep generative models are increasingly used as simulators for downstream decision-making under data scarcity, but in risk-sensitive applications their usefulness depends on rare adverse scenarios rather than typical samples. Standard generative objectives prioritize bulk distributional fidelity, leaving low-probability tails vulnerable to localized optimization noise and making tail-dependent functionals unstable under finite simulation budgets. We introduce Diachronic Sample Integration (DSI), a test-time inference framework that ensembles generated samples across checkpoints from a stochastic training trajectory. DSI targets a checkpoint-mixture distribution that averages checkpoint-specific tail fluctuations rather than relying on a single brittle endpoint. We formalize this mechanism through a finite-budget bias-variance theory. Empirically, across multivariate synthetic processes and high-frequency trading data, DSI substantially reduces tail-estimation error compared to single-checkpoint baselines under fixed simulation budgets, outperforming standard diffusion and state-of-the-art tail-aware baselines without modifying the generative objective.

iffusion-based generative models increasingly rely on inference-time guidance, adding a drift term or reweighting mixture of experts, to improve sample quality on task-specific objectives. However, most existing techniques require repeated score or gradient evaluations, introducing bias, high computational overhead, or both. We introduce \texttt{URGE}, Unbiased Resampling via Girsanov Estimation, a derivative-free inference-time scaling algorithm that performs path-wise importance reweighting via a Girsanov change of measure. Instead of computing gradient-based particle weights in previous work, \texttt{URGE} attaches a simple multiplicative weight to each simulated trajectory and periodically resamples. No score, no Hessian, and no PDE evaluation is required. We establish an equivalence between path-wise and particle-wise SMC: the Girsanov path weight admits a backward conditional expectation that recovers the previous particle-level weights, guaranteeing that both schemes produce the same unbiased terminal law. Empirically, \texttt{URGE} outperforms existing inference-time guidance baselines on synthetic tests and diffusion-model benchmarks, achieving better generation quality, while being significantly simpler to implement and fully gradient-free.

Discrete diffusion models achieve strong performance in text and image generation, but their inference remains slow and must inherently balance sampling efficiency and sample quality. In this work, we present a systematic study of how the \emph{degree of stochasticity} in Markov transitions governs the sampling tradeoff. We show that highly deterministic transitions converge rapidly but suffer from error accumulation, while more stochastic transitions converge more slowly yet can achieve higher final sample quality. Using an information-theoretic analysis, we identify the underlying mechanism as an error-correcting effect induced by \emph{redundant transitions} that symmetrically exchange mass between states, and show that these transitions can provably contract sampling errors. Motivated by this analysis, we propose \emph{Discrete Churn and Restart Sampling} (DCRS), a novel inference algorithm that injects controlled stochasticity by alternating between forward and reverse diffusion processes. Experiments on synthetic datasets and large-scale benchmarks show that DCRS improves the speed-quality tradeoff in the low number of function evaluations regime. On image datasets, DCRS achieves up to a $10\times$ reduction in sampling steps compared to standard samplers while maintaining competitive sample quality, whereas on language benchmarks, we observe more nuanced behavior depending on the corruption process and sampling procedure.