Toward a Decision-Assurance Layer for AI-Assisted Flight Planning in Air Traffic Management

Air Traffic Control (ATC) is a safety-critical domain in which incorrect interpretation of instructions may lead to severe operational consequences. While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong general performance, their reliability in operational ATC environments remains unclear. Existing evaluation approaches, largely based on aggregate metrics such as F1 or macro accuracy, treat all errors uniformly and fail to account for the asymmetric consequences of high-risk semantic mistakes (e.g., incorrect runway identifiers or movement constraints). To address this gap, we propose a safety-oriented, consequence-aware evaluation framework tailored to ATC operations. Our results reveal that while current LLMs achieve reasonable aggregate accuracy, their operational reliability is severely limited. Evaluated on clean transcripts, the peak Risk Score reaches only 0.69, with most models scoring below 0.6 despite high macro-F1 performance. Further analysis shows that errors concentrate in high-impact entities despite relatively stable action-type classification, indicating structural grounding deficiencies. These findings highlight the necessity of consequence-aware evaluation protocols for the responsible deployment of AI-assisted ATC systems.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed for aviation business operations, from documentation and training generation to customer facing assistants. General purpose benchmarks do not measure whether a model reasons safely and correctly about aviation specific operational knowledge, and the high stakes, regulated nature of the domain makes that gap consequential. We present Pre-Flight, an open source benchmark of 300 multiple choice questions drawn from international standards and airport ground operations material, covering international airport ground operations, ICAO and US FAA regulations, aviation general knowledge and complex operational scenarios. Questions were authored and reviewed by practitioners with experience in air traffic management, ground operations and commercial flying. We evaluate a range of contemporary commercial and open weight models using the Inspect evaluation framework, scoring by accuracy under a standard multiple choice protocol, and we maintain the leaderboard on a rolling basis as new models are released. Against an informal expert reference of around 95%, obtained from a low sample quiz of aviation professionals at a conference, even the strongest model evaluated (released in 2026) reaches 82.7%, having improved only gradually from roughly 75% in early 2025. A substantial and persistent gap below expert level reliability therefore remains. We release the dataset, the evaluation harness and the results, and the benchmark is available within the community evaluations package distributed with inspect_evals. We argue that domain specific evaluation of this kind is a necessary precondition for responsible deployment of generative AI in non safety critical aviation operations.

Generative AI can produce engineering artefacts, but generation alone does not determine whether or how those artefacts should enter safety-critical workflows. This paper develops a formal framework for assigning AI participation and assurance at the level of individual workflow units. Each unit has a participation and assurance record covering its engineering requirement, an approved operational formalization where applicable, the applicable mechanism, fallback where applicable, evidence obligations and the applicable guarantee, plus a deployment-readiness status. The framework distinguishes deterministic verification, statistically calibrated admission, authorized human judgement supported by AI advice, authorized human adjudication of AI-produced artefacts, retained deterministic tool paths and explicit non-participation; these arrangements carry different kinds of guarantee rather than levels on a common scale. The framework also separates formalization fidelity from verifier soundness, provides a staged classification and readiness procedure, and derives conditions for comparing a gated AI-assisted unit with an incumbent process under recurring-population assumptions. We instantiate and apply the framework in an executed 17-unit wing-spar structural-analysis workflow combining deterministically gated AI-generated CAD, retained deterministic computation and human judgement. The AI-generated CAD program passed all 23 deterministic checks and was admitted at the first attempt. Favourable stress magnitudes did not suffice to pass the stress criteria where the predeclared mesh-convergence evidence was insufficient; those criteria were instead referred to engineering judgement. The case demonstrates selective AI participation and explicit evidence handling at unit level; no claim is made of workflow-level dependability, certification, structural safety or productivity.