Predicting Social Media Engagement using Machine Learning

Understanding social interactions from non-verbal visual data is important for behavior analysis and activity monitoring. We propose an interpretable computational model of social engagement inspired by psychological theories of mutual visual attention. Rather than learning interaction patterns end-to-end, our framework explicitly models dyadic visual attention and aggregates these cues into interpretable measures of individual and group engagement. The resulting modular framework combines state-of-the-art head orientation estimation with lightweight geometric reasoning, producing explanations that remain accessible to non-technical users. We evaluate the proposed approach on a variety of data through quantitative experiments and demonstrate its practical usefulness with qualitative visualizations designed to support teachers, caregivers, and social workers in understanding group interaction dynamics.

In high-stakes settings such as brand compliance, clinical care, and content moderation, machine learning cannot be deployed as opaque oracles: practitioners inspect the features driving model decisions, and models must leverage the expert documentation governing these domains. In practice, the data arrives as unstructured content, and features extracted from it must be interpretable, discriminative, and aligned with what experts consider important. Existing methods fall short: they target tabular inputs, lack demonstrated expert alignment, and cannot operationalize qualitative criteria such as 'maintain professional tone' into precise features. We present FEST (Feature Engineering with Self-evolving Trees), combining dual-stream feature generation (semantic and deterministic), semantic deduplication, and tree-guided iterative evolution to discover auditable features from raw text and images. FEST leads in 17 of 20 classifier-task combinations across brand classification, content authenticity detection, and stress detection, with a mean gain of 4.2 pp over the strongest baseline across five classifiers. An LLM-as-judge evaluation shows FEST achieves 60-80% coverage of expert-designed brand features at strict semantic-alignment thresholds, corroborated by a human expert study rating features highly on relevance, clarity, and actionability. When seeded with expert guidelines, FEST refines qualitative criteria into operational features, improving accuracy by 6-12 pp on average across brands. To enable systematic evaluation of expert alignment in automated feature engineering, we release BrandGuide, the first dataset pairing expert-designed features with 1M+ assets across 2,683 brands. By grounding feature engineering in expert knowledge, FEST opens a practical pathway for interpretable ML in domains demanding human oversight.

Public events on social media generate large volumes of discussion whose collective dynamics carry direct value for opinion forecasting and crisis response. Capturing how these dynamics evolve across an event's lifecycle requires organizing fragmented posts into event-level time series. Existing datasets cover only a small number of events within a single category, and typically discard the interaction structure between posts when constructing time series, which restricts both transfer across event types and controlled study of how interactions shape the resulting collective dynamics. We present SURGE, a multi-event social media benchmark that pairs event-level time series with aligned text and interaction structure linking posts within an event. SURGE is built through an automated pipeline that produces calendar-aligned time series at three temporal granularities, covering 67 events and more than 800K posts across five event categories. Each time bin is paired with flat and structured textual views derived from the same selected posts, enabling controlled evaluation of whether social interaction structure affects forecasting behavior. On top of SURGE we define benchmark protocols for numerical-only forecasting, text-augmented forecasting, high-interaction evaluation, and leave-one-category-out generalization. Experiments with representative time-series and multimodal forecasting models reveal three properties of the benchmark: a strong local-persistence regime in which naive baselines remain hard to beat under absolute error, limited transfer of existing text-augmented forecasters to event-driven social-media data, and increased difficulty on reply-dense periods that aggregate metrics tend to obscure. We further include a lightweight structure-aware probe as a reference implementation, illustrating how SURGE can support interaction-aware forecasting research.