Mammography Foundation Models for Opportunistic Prediction of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events

Cardiovascular screening models trained on national health surveys routinely report areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) near 0.89. We asked whether that accuracy reflects learning or target leakage, whether tabular foundation models change the answer, and whether the properties deployment requires survive joint examination. We benchmarked ten classifiers spanning linear, tree-ensemble, neural, glass-box, and tabular foundation classes for prevalent myocardial infarction in 442,067 respondents of the 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Each was audited for discrimination, calibration, fairness at an explicit screening threshold, conformal coverage, explanation faithfulness, and inference cost, then applied -- models and thresholds frozen -- to 430,755 respondents of 2023. Removing two post-diagnostic features cost every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC, collapsing the field into a 0.0045-wide band. The glass-box explainable boosting machine was non-inferior to every alternative within a pre-specified 0.005 margin while scoring the cohort roughly 104 times faster than the strongest foundation model. One threshold detected 75.4% of women's infarctions against 89.0% of men's; editing the model's shape functions reduced the gap to 0.010. Marginal conformal prediction gave 0.86 coverage to men and 0.82 to adults over 60; Mondrian calibration repaired every stratum. Frozen models transported within 0.002 AUROC. Reported headroom in this literature is a property of the feature set, not the learner. Transparency cost nothing measurable and made fairness repair and uncertainty conditioning directly auditable. Evaluation practice, not model capacity, is the binding constraint.

Therapy-induced cardiotoxicity is the leading non-oncological cause of treatment interruption in breast cancer patients, yet early, automated risk stratification from routine cardiac imaging remains an unsolved problem. We present EchoRisk, the first curated, multicentre, longitudinal echocardiography dataset with explicit cardiotoxicity labels, released as the primary technical reference for the EchoRisk-MICCAI 2026 challenge. The dataset comprises 422 patients enrolled in the EU-funded CARDIOCARE prospective study across five European sites, yielding 2,159 echocardiography videos across 1,123 clinical exams acquired at up to five longitudinal timepoints, alongside a dedicated cohort of 280 patients with baseline imaging for early cardiotoxicity prediction. Three clinically grounded tasks are defined: automated estimation of left ventricular ejection fraction from cine video (Task 1), classification of LV dysfunction from longitudinal imaging (Task 2), and early prediction of therapy-induced cardiotoxicity from pre-therapy baseline echocardiography alone (Task 3). For each task we specify the evaluation protocol, primary and secondary metrics, and ranking procedure. We establish baseline performance using an R(2+1)D video backbone with LSTM aggregation trained from Kinetics-400 pretrained weights, demonstrating strong discriminative performance for cardiac functional assessment and LV dysfunction classification, while early cardiotoxicity prediction from a single pre-therapy video remains a significant open problem for the community. The dataset, evaluation code, and baseline implementations are publicly available to serve as a benchmark for further collaboration, comparison, and the creation of task-specific architectures in cardio-oncology.

Breast arterial calcification (BAC) on screening mammograms is an emerging cardiovascular risk biomarker, but quantitative use requires reproducible segmentation and expert pixel-level labels are costly. We present BAC-JEPA, a label-efficient segmentation framework trained on procedurally generated arterial calcification inserted into real mammographic backgrounds with exact masks. Candidate backgrounds were selected from model-screened mammograms with low predicted BAC response; the generator samples arterial structure, disease burden, radiographic appearance, and hard-negative distractors including nonarterial calcifications and metallic objects. Synthetic masks are paired with mammography self-supervised Vision Transformer encoders and a high-resolution convolutional decoder to produce full-resolution segmentation maps. The study used 75,472 mammography studies from 34,956 patients for background selection and representation learning, trained on synthetic images from 10,000 backgrounds, selected checkpoints with 1,000 development backgrounds, and evaluated transfer on all 1,000 human-labeled BacSeg synthetic 2D mammograms. On held-out synthetic validation data, the larger backbone achieved IoU 0.5325 and Dice 0.6357. On BacSeg, image-level classification from segmentation probability maps reached AUROC 0.8719, with 0.8547 for the smaller backbone. Four-view inference required 110.68--213.63 ms on an RTX 5090 GPU, and severe-preset synthetic image generation averaged 2.7071 s per image on a multicore workstation. These results indicate that BAC-specific synthetic supervision can produce useful image-level transfer without human pixel-level training masks, while expert-reviewed real-mammogram segmentation remains necessary for clinical validation and calibration.