CoreSense: Traceable Failure Recall and Conflict-Aware Belief Gating for Auditable Robot Decisions

Safe physical AI for robot actions are required not only likely to succeed but tested to be safe before execution. In practice, however, formal testing of motion parameters is computationally expensive, and the cost scales poorly with the dimensionality of the action space. When a proposed action is rejected by a tester, the naive response is to resample blindly until a passing candidate is found. This is wasteful, uninformative, and offers no convergence. We argue that rejection should instead trigger causal diagnosis: a principled identification of which action parameter caused the failure and what corrective value maximises the probability of passing testing under the interventional probability distribution. We propose a closed-loop framework that couples a Joint Probability Tree (JPT) with a Causal Circuit derived from a Marginal-Deterministic Variable Tree, enabling exact polytime computation without retraining, or additional data collection. The framework validates tractability of all interventional queries before the robot begins operating, and out-of-support candidates are detected and excluded from correction automatically. We perform experiments in a ROS2 simulation environment, and the framework demonstrates complementary roles across quality of distribution: under a high-quality JPT, the Causal Circuit reduces failed attempts by 10.3% and under a degraded JPT, it reduces total failed attempts by 37%. Every rejected plan produces a structured, interpretable causal report naming the primary cause variable, its observed value, and the recommended corrective region, supporting operator oversight and autonomous recovery without a separately trained failure model.

Robotic systems often use predictive uncertainty to decide whether to act autonomously or defer to a fallback policy. In threshold-gated autonomy, uncertainty matters mainly through its ability to rank likely errors. Standard metrics such as expected calibration error and AUROC do not directly test whether uncertainty changes act/defer decisions. We therefore evaluate uncertainty using Spearman rank correlation, paired bootstrap equivalence testing, and act/defer agreement. Across three temporal activity-recognition benchmarks, we find a dataset-dependent competence regime below which uncertainty provides a weak and unstable error ranking. Above this regime, softmax heuristics, MC Dropout, and ensembles produce similar gating behavior, while threshold choice has a much larger effect on execution outcomes. A multi-seed embodied simulation shows the same pattern for collision rate and cost once realized autonomy is matched. Under temporal covariate shift, ranking quality remains stable, but fine grained semantic OOD detection remains near chance. These results suggest that simple uncertainty proxies can suffice for selective gating once the base model is competent, but not for semantic novelty detection.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting enables LLMs to perform explicit, step-by-step reasoning, creating opportunities for sophisticated autonomous robots. However, recent research reveals that reasoning models verbalize their actual decision processes only 25-39% of the time, with faithfulness degrading 44% on complex tasks. This paper presents CT-SAFR (Chain-of-Thought Safety and Faithfulness for Robotics), a multi-layered verification framework achieving 94.2% hallucination detection (n = 500, 95% CI: 91.8-95.9%) with sub-500ms latency. Through a warehouse robot case study, this work demonstrates 87% reduction in unsafe reasoning outputs (p < 0.001) and provides recommendations for responsible deployment of reasoning-capable autonomous robots.