Optimal No-Regret Learning for Repeated Prophet Inequality

We study the prophet inequality, a fundamental problem in online decision-making and optimal stopping, in a practical setting where rewards are observed only through noisy realizations and reward distributions are unknown. At each stage, the decision-maker receives a noisy reward whose true value follows a linear model with an unknown latent parameter, and observes a feature vector drawn from a distribution. To address this challenge, we propose algorithms that integrate learning and decision-making via lower-confidence-bound (LCB) thresholding. In the i.i.d.\ setting, we establish that both an Explore-then-Decide strategy and an $\varepsilon$-Greedy variant achieve the sharp competitive ratio of $1 - 1/e$, under a mild condition on the optimal value. For non-identical distributions, we show that a competitive ratio of $1/2$ can be guaranteed against a relaxed benchmark. Moreover, with limited window access to past rewards, the tight ratio of $1/2$ against the optimal benchmark is achieved.

We study learning in prophet inequalities with i.i.d. rewards drawn from an exponential-type parametric family with an unknown parameter $θ$, a class that includes exponential, Pareto, and bounded-support power-family distributions. We first characterize the optimal full-information asymptotic competitive ratio for this family. In the unbounded-support case, the limit is ${\left(θ/({θ-c_+})\right)^{c_+/θ}}/ {Γ(1-c_+/θ)},$ while in the bounded-support case, the limit is $1$. We then propose a confidence-based dynamic-programming policy for online learning. By exploiting the explicit parametric structure, the policy achieves the same optimal asymptotic competitive ratio using only online observations, without external offline samples. We further derive distribution-specific convergence rates for canonical examples. Finally, numerical experiments on synthetic instances illustrate the performance of our algorithm.

A learner probes at most $k$ of $n$ arms each round, receives the maximum of their rewards in $[0,1]$, and competes with the best fixed arm. When does the probing advantage pay for learning? We determine two minimax laws. Under independent stochastic rewards with winner feedback (the maximum and a winning label), or on arbitrary fixed sequences given a single signed contrast between block maxima, the minimax regret has order $Φ_{n,k}(T)=\min\{\frac{n-k}{n}T,\frac{n-k}{k}\}$, $2\le k<n$. Under winner feedback, both arbitrary joint i.i.d. rewards and fixed sequences have minimax regret of order $R_{n,k}(T)=\frac{n-k}{n}\min\{T,\frac{n+T}{k},\sqrt{\frac{nT}{k}}\}$. Both laws have universal constants and anytime upper bounds. The first reduces regret to a pure coverage cost: same-round contrasts absorb the stability cost, and independence permits exact resampling whose gains fund sample advancement. The second adds a learning cost that becomes comparable to coverage at horizon $n$; beyond $nk$, numerical maxima improve over labels alone. The lower bound allows every adaptive action size.