cs.LGSep 20, 2026

Optimal No-Regret Learning for Repeated Prophet Inequality

Authors: Kun Wang

Organizations: Purdue University

Abstract

We study repeated prophet inequalities under prefix feedback. In each of TT rounds, a learner encounters fresh values drawn independently from nn boxes with unknown [0,1][0,1]-supported distributions in a fixed order and must irrevocably accept one, observing only the prefix up to its stopping box. Regret is measured against the optimal stopping policy that knows the distributions. We give an efficient algorithm achieving O~(T)\widetilde O(\sqrt{T}) expected regret, matching the lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Our algorithm explores directly through near-optimal policies, combining empirical backward induction with box-specific reach bonuses. A relative-drop aggregation rule then exploits the nesting structure of observed prefixes to preserve exploration, thereby removing the polynomial dependence on the box number nn. This resolves an open question posed by Liu et al. (2025).

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