Abstract
This paper introduces a novel algorithm for predicting conditional joint distributions of vector-valued targets in stochastic systems whose randomness is intrinsic rather than arising from observation errors or additive noise. Multivariate quantile regression also involves modeling conditional joint distributions but represents a less challenging task. It predicts the probability that vector-valued targets fall within predefined regions, identifies regions corresponding to predefined probability levels, or performs both tasks simultaneously. The proposed identification technique employs ensembles of Kolmogorov--Arnold networks (KANs) as flexible function approximators. Although the suggested technique is not theoretically restricted to KANs, KANs are particularly well suited to the proposed construction and are therefore used throughout this study. In addition to the training procedure, this work introduces a new discrepancy measure for joint distributions and a goodness-of-fit (GoF) test based on it. This GoF test was initially developed to validate and calibrate the proposed identification technique and is used here in an ad hoc manner. Although the test could be tabulated for broader use, such a tabulation is not pursued in this work. The test is also applicable more generally.
Explore similar work
Nov 24, 2025cs.LG
Kolmogorov--Arnold Networks (KANs) replace linear weights with spline-based functions, offering strong expressivity but posing challenges for low-precision deployment due to heterogeneous parameter distributions. We introduce QuantKAN, the first unified framework for quantization-aware training (QAT) and post-training quantization (PTQ) of KANs. The framework employs branch-aware quantizers for base and spline parameters and extends modern QAT and PTQ methods to spline-based layers across EfficientKAN, FastKAN, PyKAN, and KAGN. Experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, TinyImageNet, and ImageNet provide the first unified QAT/PTQ KAN benchmarks and show that DSQ is the most robust QAT method at aggressive low-bit settings, while GPTQ is the strongest PTQ method at moderate precision. Sensitivity analyses reveal architecture-specific failure modes: spline/basis parameters dominate in FastKAN, while base or scaling parameters dominate in EfficientKAN, GRAM, and PyKAN. Vivado HLS estimates on a Xilinx UltraScale+ device further suggest up to 3.32
× throughput and 7.7
× lower estimated dynamic energy per inference under W4A4, exposing a residual \emph{basis-evaluation tax} that motivates basis-aware microarchitecture. QuantKAN is available at https://github.com/OSU-STARLAB/QuantKAN/.
Kazi Ahmed Asif Fuad, Lizhong Chen
Jul 15, 2026stat.ML
Boosting is one of the most successful learning techniques for standard classification and regression tasks. Its extension to multi-output prediction problems has found an increasing number of applications in recent years. Among them is the prediction of entire conditional distributions rather than single functionals, which can often be framed as a multi-output regression problem, for example multiple quantile regression. Addressing such problems with classical implementations of boosting is computationally challenging, because usually one base model is trained for each target at every iteration. More efficient variants of boosting have been proposed to speed up training, but they tend to be tied to specific loss functions and classes of base learners, usually decision trees. In this work, we study a modification of the gradient boosting algorithm, which we call parallel gradient boosting, designed to circumvent all these limitations. The core idea is to use a common descent direction for all training observations. By doing so, only one base model is needed at each iteration, regardless of the number of targets, which allows for considerable performance gains. We establish sufficient conditions for the convergence of the algorithm, whose practical use is introduced via the multiple quantile regression setting. We show that in such a setting, it provides predictions of similar quality to state-of-the-art boosting libraries such as XGBoost, while being faster by several orders of magnitude. Then, we evaluate the properties of the resulting conditional distribution estimator, which is shown empirically to outperform other nonparametric and semiparametric estimators, especially in high-dimensional settings and in the presence of mixed and/or missing covariates.
Rémy Chapelle, Nicolas Vayatis, Bruno Falissard +1
Apr 22, 2026cs.LG
The field of machine learning is subject to an increasing interest in models that are not only accurate but also interpretable and robust, thus allowing their end users to understand and trust AI systems. This paper presents a novel method for learning a set of optimal quantile regression trees. The advantages of this method are that (1) it provides predictions about the complete conditional distribution of a target variable without prior assumptions on this distribution; (2) it provides predictions that are interpretable; (3) it learns a set of optimal quantile regression trees without compromising algorithmic efficiency compared to learning a single tree.
Valentin Lemaire, Gaël Aglin, Siegfried Nijssen