Density-Ratio Rescoring for Imbalanced Classification Using Raking Duals and Classifier Scores

Long-tailed classification, where a small number of frequent classes dominate many rare ones, remains challenging because models systematically favor frequent classes at inference time. Existing post-hoc methods such as logit adjustment address this by adding a fixed classwise offset to the base-model logits. However, the correction required to restore the relative ranking of two classes need not be constant across inputs, and a fixed offset cannot adapt to such variation. We study this problem through Bayes-optimal reranking on a base-model top-k shortlist. The gap between the optimal score and the base score, the residual correction, decomposes into a classwise component that is constant within each class, and a pairwise component that depends on the input and competing labels. When the residual is purely classwise, a fixed offset suffices to recover the Bayes-optimal ordering. We further show that when the same label pair induces incompatible ordering constraints across contexts, no fixed offset can achieve this recovery. This decomposition leads to testable predictions regarding when pairwise correction can improve performance and when cannot. We develop REPAIR (Reranking via Pairwise residual correction), a lightweight post-hoc reranker that combines a shrinkage-stabilized classwise term with a linear pairwise term driven by competition features on the shortlist. Experiments on nine benchmarks confirm that the decomposition explains where pairwise correction helps and where classwise correction alone suffices. These span text classification, visual recognition, and multimodal rare-disease diagnosis.

Synthetic data augmentation is widely used to mitigate class imbalance, but its theoretical effects on score-based classification remain poorly understood. This paper develops a framework for characterizing when synthetic minority augmentation can improve threshold-integrated and threshold-optimized metrics, including AUROC, AUPRC, best-threshold balanced accuracy, and best-threshold $\F_1$ score. We separate the effect of augmentation into two components: a change in effective class weighting and a discrepancy between the synthetic and true minority distributions. Under well-specified score models, the raw estimator already targets the likelihood-ratio ordering, which is population-optimal for the metrics considered. Consequently, augmentation cannot provide a fundamental population-level improvement beyond possible finite-sample variance reduction, and may introduce additional bias through synthetic distributional error. We further establish minimax lower bounds showing that the raw estimator already achieves the optimal metric-regret rate in the well-specified regime. Under misspecification, however, augmentation can play a qualitatively different role: by changing the effective class balance, it can alter the restricted-class projection and correct ranking errors induced by the raw imbalanced objective. We provide explicit improvement bounds quantifying the roles of approximation error, finite-sample estimation error, and synthetic distributional error. Simulation studies corroborate the theory, demonstrating limited gains under well-specification and nontrivial but nonmonotone improvements under misspecification.

Class imbalance poses a fundamental challenge in risk-sensitive applications such as fraud detection and medical diagnosis, where minority-class samples are scarce yet critical for accurate classification. Existing oversampling methods generate synthetic samples to rebalance class distributions; however, they often produce large numbers of low-quality candidates that distort decision boundaries or introduce artifacts, leading to overfitting and degraded generalization. In this work, we introduce RUBRIC, a generator-agnostic filtering framework that formulates synthetic sample selection as a quality-over-quantity optimization problem. RUBRIC ranks candidates using a realism-utility trade-off: realism is quantified by a learned discriminator that distinguishes real samples from synthetic samples, while utility captures proximity to the decision boundary through a concave margin-based scoring function. We show that, under mild regularity conditions, the proposed filtering strategy monotonically tightens the generalization bound for margin-based classifiers by jointly reducing distribution shift and suppressing near-negative tail contributions. Through extensive experiments on credit-card fraud detection and other imbalanced benchmarks, we demonstrate that RUBRIC improves F1-macro and recall while maintaining comparable ROC-AUC across several generators. We also provide explicit lambda-sensitivity analysis to show how users can recover AUPRC when ranking quality is prioritized.