Explainable Neuro-Fuzzy Prediction for Trustworthy Decision-Making in Maritime

The shipping industry has a significant impact on the global economy, emphasizing the need for operational availability and safety through the use of effective maintenance techniques. During the last decades, predictive maintenance (PdM) has emerged as a promising solution compared to the existing conventional maintenance systems. This is because it offers several advantageous functions, such as damage predictions for vessel components, reduced downtime, improved and extended life of machinery, as well as higher safety during voyages. However, existing methodologies developed for performing PdM do not provide explanations of their results to users, so that they can understand the failures that may occur. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a novel framework based on a fuzzy decision tree and a deep residual neural network, aiming to perform explainable PdM on naval vessels. The proposed framework is able to generate fuzzy local rules based on the dataset used, and can provide explanations of its outcomes, using cause-and-effect relationships, in a way that are understandable to users, thereby gaining their trust. Experiments using a publicly available dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, as it achieves an accuracy of 99.24%.

Predictive process monitoring supports the optimization and control of operational business processes by forecasting the future state or outcome of ongoing cases. While deep neural networks have achieved strong performance for these tasks by modeling sequential dependencies in event logs, their black-box nature limits trust and practical adoption. Feature attribution methods are often used to address this, but applying them directly poses a dilemma: event-level attributions impose high computational complexity for long traces, while explanations based on aggregated trace representations often fail to capture the underlying control-flow dynamics. To address this issue, we propose a local post-hoc explainability method for deep neural networks in outcome prediction. The method relies on a control-flow-aware segmentation algorithm that partitions a trace into meaningful segments and supports the computation of segment-level SHAP explanations. This makes it possible to identify which parts of a trace influence a prediction and which change points steer the case toward the predicted outcome. We assess the proposed segmentation method on a synthetic dataset with known process logic, where meaningful change points can be explicitly verified, and we demonstrate its usefulness on real-world event logs from a loan application process and an administrative process of a Dutch municipality.

Explaining machine-learning models is increasingly important for decision-making and consumer trust, yet it is widely believed to come at a cost: existing Explainable AI (XAI) methods suffer from a persistent accuracy-explainability trade-off. We argue that this trade-off is not fundamental, but an artifact of treating explanation and prediction as separate objectives; when properly coupled, they become complementary, so that equipping a model to explain itself improves, rather than degrades, its accuracy. We introduce the Rashomon Explanation paradigm, which builds a set of faithful, prediction-guiding explanations rather than a single one, and prove that this set is generally non-empty and that explanation fidelity bounds the performance of the models it guides. To explore this set, we propose RashomonLLM, an Explanation-Prediction-Reflection agentic workflow that generates explanations in natural language by iteratively aligning them with predictions, and we prove it converges and recovers the full set. Across customer-churn classification, clinical survival regression, and industrial click-through prediction on large-scale live-streaming logs, RashomonLLM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art prediction and XAI baselines on both accuracy and explanation quality, with gains driven by explanation fidelity and robust to distribution shifts, temporal splits, and seeds. Our framework thus advances business performance while laying the groundwork for consumer trust.