Prospective stroke risk stratification in primary care is challenging because early risk signals are distributed across routine biomarkers and unstructured clinical narratives. We propose MedGate-Fusion, a multi-modal gated architecture that integrates transformer-based embeddings of first-encounter narratives with ten routinely recorded risk markers. We used electronic medical record data from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN). Starting from 808,921 encounter-level observations, we constructed a first-encounter cohort and retained 102,736 unique patient records with non-empty narratives and sufficient data to evaluate a five-year stroke outcome. To reduce explicit target leakage from diagnostic mentions in notes, we applied dictionary-based redaction of stroke-related terms prior to semantic encoding.
The scarcity of temporally aligned pre-event physiological data limits the study of stroke risk states before documented clinical recognition. We focus on patients who experienced stroke during hospitalization while undergoing continuous monitoring, enabling retrospective analysis of pre-anchor photoplethysmography (PPG). Using MIMIC-III and MC-MED, an LLM-assisted pipeline generated candidate stroke anchors from unstructured notes. All retained anchors underwent physician adjudication, and a stratified 100-case double-review audit showed 95.0% candidate-to-adjudicated agreement within +/-15 min. We identified 176 MIMIC-III patients and 154 MC-MED patients with eligible synchronized pre-anchor PPG. A fixed 17-channel hemodynamic representation and ResNet-1D classifier were evaluated using patient-level five-fold internal validation and frozen external testing. At validation-selected operating points, F1-scores were 0.7956, 0.8759, and 0.9406 for 4-, 5-, and 6-hour horizons in MIMIC-III and 0.9256, 0.9595, and 0.9888 in MC-MED; the corresponding threshold-free AUCs ranged from 0.6124 to 0.7079. The PPG model achieved higher F1 than four non-waveform clinical and structured-EHR comparators in all six cohort-horizon settings. On high-risk non-stroke controls, window-level false-positive rates ranged from 0.1371 to 0.2938 and decreased to 0.0183-0.1739 after persistence aggregation. These retrospective findings support measurable pre-anchor PPG structure, but do not establish biological stroke onset, a calibrated bedside alarm, or a clinically validated prediction lead time.
Risk stratification for pulmonary embolism (PE) is critical for clinical decision-making. Stratification guidelines are based on patient medical records, parameters measured from computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA), and blood tests. However, blood tests are often missing in routine practice. This work studies whether state-of-the-art models can accurately classify risk stratification from only medical records and biomarkers extracted from CTPA images. We benchmark different approaches to combine medical records and cardiac biomarkers with rich pulmonary vascular information; we add vascular biomarkers to tabular models and apply graph neural networks (GNNs) on the vascular tree's intrinsic graph representation. We use a private dataset (n=353) with uniquely complete data for PE risk stratification. Our results show that, among global features, medical records and cardiac biomarkers are the most significant predictors, while vascular biomarkers do not further improve stratification. Even more surprising, even GNNs on vascular graphs fail to outperform strong tabular baseline on global features. We consider hypotheses, on both models and data, that could explain this suboptimal performance. Our investigation suggests that, counter-intuitively, vascular graphs might hold no discriminative information for PE risk stratification. Code is available from https://github.com/creatis-myriad/GENESIS.
Nathan Painchaud, Tristan Habémont, Morgane des Ligneris +6
Machine learning models achieve strong predictive accuracy for 90-day outcome prediction in acute ischaemic stroke, yet clinical adoption is limited by the misalignment of model explanations with clinicians' reasoning. Motivated by a clinician user study calling for clinical guideline-aligned cut-offs, we ask whether continuous predictors can be replaced by clinically informed categorical encodings without sacrificing performance. On a multi-centre European registry stratified into three treatment cohorts, we compare standard and fully categorised gradient-boosted models, the latter using stroke guideline-aligned, treatment-specific thresholds. The fully categorised models are statistically indistinguishable from their continuous counterparts in two of the treatment cohorts, with a significant drop in predictive accuracy in one cohort. Global feature importance rankings remain consistent, suggesting that discretising continuous predictors into guideline-based categories preserves the core hierarchy of prognostic factors across all treatment groups. Guideline-based categorisation is thus a viable design choice for stroke-outcome models.