Decoupling Is Not Identification: Supervised Evidential Learning in Next-Token Prediction

Standard next-token prediction (NTP) supervises language models solely through discrete labels in the output logit space. We argue that this sparse one-hot supervision leaves the latent representation space under-constrained, allowing hidden states to drift into degenerate and anisotropic configurations that can limit generalization. To address this issue, we propose Next Implicit Token Prediction (NITP), which augments discrete prediction with dense continuous supervision directly in the representation space. NITP trains the model to predict the implicit semantic content of the next token, using shallow-layer representations from the same model as stable self-supervised targets. We provide theoretical analysis showing that NITP regularizes the optimization landscape by mitigating under-constrained degrees of freedom and encouraging a compact, structured representation geometry. Empirically, across dense and MoE models ranging from 0.5B to 9B parameters, NITP consistently improves downstream performance with negligible computational overhead. On a 9B MoE model, NITP achieves a 5.7% absolute improvement on MMLU-Pro, along with gains of 6.4% on C3 and 4.3% on CommonsenseQA, with approximately 2% additional training FLOPs and no additional inference cost. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/aHapBean/NITP.

Language models trained on observed sequences are often described as learning the conditional distribution of the next token given previous tokens. This description is only conditionally correct. A model trained on realized token trajectories does not observe full conditional laws; it receives sampled continuations. Moreover, real language generation is conditioned not only on previous words but also on non-textual circumstances: facts, events, intentions, goals, beliefs, social context, and task-specific constraints. This paper distinguishes three objects that are often conflated: the full conditional language process conditioned on latent circumstances, the marginal text-only process obtained by integrating those circumstances out, and the model-induced distribution learned from finite observed corpora. The paper argues that interpreting model training as estimating the marginal text-only law requires strong assumptions of stationarity, representativeness, and ergodicity, assumptions that are standard in statistical estimation but problematic when applied to heterogeneous language corpora. Even if these assumptions hold, the marginal text-only law is useful only when the observed prefix is an approximately sufficient statistic for the latent circumstances relevant to continuation. In information-theoretic terms, usefulness requires that the residual conditional mutual information between the next token and the omitted circumstances, given the observed text, be small. The paper then extends this argument to heterogeneous training corpora. Finally, the paper interprets Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) and tool use as conditional sufficiency devices.

We develop an information-theoretic framework for generalization in next-token prediction under temporally dependent data. We consider independent trajectories generated by finite-memory Markov processes and distinguish algorithmic dependence, quantified by mutual information, from temporal dependence, characterized by mixing. For cross-entropy loss, we derive an expected generalization bound using the Donsker--Varadhan variational representation and a McDiarmid-type concentration inequality for Markov chains. A refinement captures the joint effect of context length and temporal mixing through the mixing properties of the history-state process. We then extend the bound through a rate--distortion formulation, replacing mutual information with the minimum information rate required to represent the learned model within a prescribed distortion in the generalization gap, yielding informative guarantees for deterministic algorithms over continuous hypothesis spaces. For margin-based prediction, we derive explicit bounds for linear and self-attention next-token predictors via noisy low-dimensional compression, revealing the roles of context length, model complexity, sample size, margin, and temporal mixing. Experiments on TinyStories and ETTh2 show that longer contexts can reduce both training and test losses, but typically reduce training loss more, enlarging the generalization gap. A complementary ETTh2 analysis identifies an effective predictive-memory scale near 24 hours, with no statistically supported improvement beyond this scale, offering a plausible explanation for test-performance saturation at larger contexts.