Reliability Theory for AI Control

As AI agents begin to automate AI R&D, we need ways to assess whether their outputs are safe to deploy, even when the agents themselves may be untrusted. AI control offers one such approach: rather than trusting the agent, it treats it as a potential adversary and uses a monitor to detect covert sabotage before deployment. We evaluate AI control for automated AI R&D with ResearchArena, a framework spanning four long-horizon tasks: safety post-training, capabilities post-training, CUDA-kernel optimization, and inference-server optimization. Because the deliverable in AI R&D is an artifact that will be deployed and run, we pair each main task with two kinds of hidden side task: an embedded side task that sabotages the submitted model, adapter, kernel, or server itself, and an independent side task that takes a covert out-of-scope action in the sandbox while leaving the artifact honest. We evaluate frontier agents at both sabotage and monitoring, across four monitor types that vary along two axes: whether the monitor may execute and probe the produced artifact, and whether it sees the agent's chain-of-thought. We find that sabotage hidden in the training data is the hardest to catch, flagged fewer than half the time. Letting the monitor run experiments on the artifact, rather than only read the trajectory, helps, but it is not enough: monitors still miss embedded sabotage by inspecting only the surface, by noticing the anomaly but explaining it away, or by probing the artifact with the wrong test. We release ResearchArena as a modular framework for evaluating sabotage and control in automated AI R&D.

Incidents show that AI safety failures often arise across multiple layers. We present a safety-by-design assurance architecture combining model-level supervision, such as Scientist AI, with system-level controls over scaffolds and harnesses, independent verification, monitoring, and evidence infrastructure, supported by governance for accountability and evidence interoperability.

As AI systems become increasingly capable, safety strategies must be evaluated not only by how much they reduce present risk, but by whether they could sustain safety once external control can no longer reliably constrain system behavior. This paper addresses that problem by using control theory to clarify, at a structural level, whether externally enforced safety-sustaining strategies can succeed and, if not, what any alternative strategy would have to satisfy in order to be viable. It establishes two main results. First, under explicit premises including a reachability condition, it proves a class-wide external impossibility result: once the system's effects exceed what bounded external control can counteract, no strategy that depends in any degree on continued external enforcement can sustain AI safety. This failure is structural across the entire externally enforced class rather than contingent on any particular strategy. Second, it establishes a conditional class-level necessity result: if at least one candidate safety-sustaining strategy remains after that elimination, then all such remaining strategies must be intrinsic. It then states four structural requirements for viability: safety may not depend on continued external enforcement; the system's terminal objective must be safety-compatible when first formed; that objective must remain stable under self-modification; and safety must continue to be preserved as capability grows. The paper does not propose a complete strategy for sustaining AI safety. Its contribution is to give formal structure to a widely held concern about the limits of external control. It does so by deriving explicit conditional results that identify which safety-sustaining strategies are ruled out and what any remaining strategies must satisfy.