Non-Commutative State Tracking with Input-Dependent Low-Rank Updates in Mamba-3

State tracking exposes a sharp limitation of sequence models: the relevant signal is often not a summary of observed tokens, but an ordered latent state that evolves through non-commutative transformations. We introduce a held-out transition-pair falsifier for finite non-Abelian group tracking. The protocol forbids selected ordered generator pairs during training and requires the same local patterns during evaluation, blocking one direct local-transition memorization pathway. In a controlled $S_3 \times S_3$ benchmark, a projected recurrent state model trained only on length-8 sequences produces error-free final-state predictions (perfect 250/250 per horizon) through evaluation horizons up to 1,048,576 tokens across five seeds. Matched native-readout baselines, including bag, GRU, and a single-configuration structured state-space model, remain near floor under the same protocol. Projection-matched GRU, structured SSM, and bag baselines equipped with analogous finite-group prototype readouts also remain near chance under the same split. Mechanism diagnostics show that hard projection coincides with low homomorphism error, low state-consistency drift, and non-trivial commutator separation, while softened projection collapses final-state accuracy. Clean-split audits verify zero verbatim reduced-word overlap and zero structural-template overlap between training and evaluation partitions. The evidence is scoped to this controlled finite-group falsifier rather than to a general architecture ranking. Within that regime, explicit projected non-commutative state composition acts as a useful inductive bias for long-horizon hidden-state tracking.

Over the last years, state-tracking tasks, particularly permutation composition, have become a testbed to understand the limits of sequence models architectures like Transformers and RNNs (linear and non-linear). However, these are often sequence-to-sequence tasks: learning to map actions (permutations) to states, which is incompatible with the next-token prediction setting commonly used to train language models. We address this gap by converting permutation composition into code via REPL traces that interleave state-reveals through prints and variable transformations. We show that linear RNNs capable of state-tracking excel also in this setting, while Transformers still fail. Motivated by this representation, we investigate why tracking states in code is generally difficult: actions are not always fully observable. We frame this as tracking the state of a probabilistic finite-state automaton with deterministic state reveals and show that linear RNNs can be worse than non-linear RNNs at tracking states in this setup.

Probes are routinely paired with an intervention: ablate the direction the probe found, run the model, and read the change in task accuracy, taking a large drop as evidence that the computation depends on what the probe read and a near-zero drop as evidence that it does not. Either inference requires that the ablation have removed the target from the layer. We find that the ablation does not remove what it targets. A probe refitted on the ablated activations recovers its original accuracy in every cell we test, and keeps recovering when the probe's entire row space is deleted rather than a single axis, because the quantity survives in the orthogonal complement. Because a refitted probe recovers, neither a large task drop nor a near-zero one establishes whether the model needed the target, and one probe fit detects this. Replacing the ablation with iterative nullspace projection, scored against random subspaces of matched dimension, reverses the conclusion: representations that looked causally inert carry most of the task. The correction also separates where a variable is most readable from where deleting it does most damage, and those are not the same layer in any pretrained model we study. The erasure is defined by a linear probe family, so removing a nonlinearly encoded quantity remains open.