Auditing and Repairing LLM-as-Judge Failures in a Production Text-to-SQL Pipeline

Evaluating uncertainty in AI-generated SQL queries requires estimating whether a query is correct, where correct means it executes to the same result as a human-written reference. We study which signals predict correctness on hard multi-table text-to-SQL, using AUROC to measure how well each ranks correct queries above incorrect ones. On BIRD and Spider, black-box signals such as string, structural, and execution self-consistency, a schema-relevance score, and query executability all fall between about 0.61 and 0.68 AUROC, with string self-consistency strongest at 0.675; white-box log-probability is similar (0.67). The signals that move past this ceiling are verification-based: an LLM judge scores from 0.72 (GPT-4o-mini) to 0.78 (Claude). Judges from different providers make different errors, so a two-provider ensemble reaches 0.82 AUROC with a well-calibrated probability (expected calibration error 0.03) and supports useful abstention frontiers (for example, answering 27% of questions at 24% selective risk) where self-consistency offers no valid low-risk subset. The pattern holds across two benchmarks, two generators, and two judge providers. We also ask whether a verifier can be trained. Fine-tuned verifiers, both encoder and generative, reach about 0.77 to 0.79 AUROC in-distribution but fall to about 0.66 on unseen schemas; scaling to 7B, adding schema diversity, distilling a strong judge's rationales, and cross-benchmark training all fail to close that gap. Cross-schema transfer appears to track model scale and reasoning rather than fine-tuning. In practice, correctness uncertainty for text-to-SQL lives in reasoning-based signals: a fine-tuned verifier is a good in-domain tool, but a verifier that generalizes across schemas currently means a large frozen reasoning model.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have substantially improved Text-to-SQL performance, yet existing NL2SQL systems largely assume that user queries are valid and answerable. As a result, models often generate executable SQL even for queries with flawed premises. We introduce premise critique ability in NL2SQL, namely the ability to recognize flawed queries and abstain from generating misleading SQL. To evaluate this capability, we propose PremiseSQL, a benchmark containing 1,800 flawed NL2SQL queries across four categories of premise failures, along with their 1,800 original queries. We further design an evaluation framework to measure intrinsic and prompt-induced premise-aware behavior across three prompting settings. Experiments on frontier LLMs show that current models are strongly premise-trusting by default and rarely critique flawed premises. Stronger critique-oriented prompting improves detection and abstention on flawed queries, but also increases false invalid judgments and suppresses SQL generation on originals. The code is available at https://github.com/vegeet/PremiseSQL.

In Text-to-SQL tasks, large language models can generate structurally different SQL queries that return correct answers for the same intent. We call this phenomenon execution-correct structural divergence (ECSD). We introduce SQLStructEval, a framework that analyzes this behavior through canonical abstract syntax tree representations. We quantify structural diversity and agreement across generations. Experiments with different LLMs on multiple Text-to-SQL datasets, including Spider, document ECSD across models and datasets. Furthermore, our experiments demonstrate that generated queries are sensitive to question paraphrases and schema presentation. To address ECSD, we adopt a pipeline that first generates structured intermediate representations and then deterministically compiles them into SQL, improving execution accuracy and structural agreement among correct outputs. Structural analysis thus provides an additional diagnostic perspective that complements execution-based evaluation. Code is available at https://xanderzhou2022.github.io/AACL2026-SQLSTRUCTEVAL/.