Time series foundation models must preserve multi-domain breadth, probabilistic output, and multiple temporal scales, but parameter count grows when each scale receives a separate representation. We introduce Fracast-0, a probabilistic forecasting foundation model that exploits temporal self-similarity to reuse one operator across scales. A parameter-free detector extracts significant seasonal structure. The encoder applies a shared local block along a geometric dilation ladder with scale conditioning, while the decoder combines context-gathered states with an explicit seasonal future state and reuses a second block along another ladder before emitting nine quantiles. Pretraining across six corpora preserves multi-domain breadth within 85,001 parameters. On 97 GIFT-Eval configurations without per-dataset fine-tuning, Fracast-0 is the smallest of 28 evaluated checkpoints and remains non-dominated in the aggregate parameter-accuracy plane with MASE 0.808 and WQL 0.564. It uses 42.0% fewer parameters than TinyCast, whose MASE and WQL are 4.2% and 3.3% lower. These results support cross-scale weight reuse as a practical route to further time series foundation model compression.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Cross-scale parameter growth. A conventional multiscale design assigns a separate encoder and decoder parameter set at every temporal scale. Fracast-0 instead reuses one encoder operator and one decoder operator across scales, so the stored parameter count does not grow with the number of scale rungs.
Figure 2: Fracast-0 turns a univariate context window into a quantile forecast through three stages. A preprocessing stage normalizes the raw context and derives its periodic prior. An encoder maps the normalized context to a hidden state, and a decoder maps that state back to the horizon. Panel (b) shows the overall path. Panels (a) and (c) expand the encoder and the decoder.
Figure 3: Scaling study on GIFT-Eval. Every point is a released checkpoint, and lines connect checkpoints of the same family.
Normalized MASE
Normalized WQL
Model
Params
Pareto
Short
Medium
Long
Overall
Short
Medium
Long
Overall
Fracast-0 (Ours)
85K
Both
0.770
0.844
0.877
0.808
0.569
0.557
0.556
0.564
TinyCast
147K
Both
0.755
0.786
0.811
0.774
0.570
0.515
0.515
0.545
Moirai-2.0
11.4M
–
0.695
0.759
0.789
0.728
0.517
0.519
0.513
0.516
FlowState-r1.1
18.5M
Both
0.682
0.720
0.736
0.701
0.507
0.469
0.455
0.487
TiRex-2
38.4M
Both
0.662
0.692
0.706
0.678
0.489
0.443
0.436
0.467
Table 2: GIFT-Eval test results without per-dataset fine-tuning. MASE and WQL are Seasonal Naive-normalized geometric means over 97 configurations (55 short, 21 medium, 21 long).
Figure 4: Parameter-accuracy Pareto frontier on GIFT-Eval.
Figure 5: Normalized MASE against parameter count for the short, medium, and long horizon groups of GIFT-Eval.
Figure 6: Deployment efficiency on the local CPU benchmark. Both panels use the same eight-model set and fixed random-input workload. The memory panel reports total resident memory after inference. Falcon-2.0 is N/A because no local checkpoint is available.
Appendix figures & tables4 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Figure 7: Qualitative short-horizon forecasts on six GIFT-Eval datasets. The shaded band is Fracast-0’s 10–90% quantile interval, and the panel title reports normalized MAE for the selected window.
Model
Econ/Fin
Energy
Healthcare
Nature
Sales
Transport
Web/CloudOps
Fracast-0 (Ours)
0.909
0.904
0.756
0.765
0.692
0.686
0.805
TinyCast
0.895
0.882
0.734
0.758
0.734
0.670
0.696
Moirai-2.0
0.779
0.837
0.600
0.755
0.689
0.620
0.665
FlowState-r1.1
0.756
0.816
0.597
0.705
0.682
0.604
0.628
TiRex-2
0.776
0.767
0.574
0.705
0.682
0.576
0.609
Chronos-2
0.772
0.816
0.551
0.723
0.679
0.603
0.611
Appendix
Table 3: Official GIFT-Eval By Domain comparison. Each cell reports MASE.
Model
Secondly
Minutely
Hourly
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Quarterly
Yearly
Fracast-0 (Ours)
1.141
0.826
0.765
0.711
0.869
0.855
0.801
0.818
TinyCast
0.907
0.756
0.754
0.711
0.859
0.885
0.859
0.934
Moirai-2.0
0.854
0.727
0.710
0.670
0.769
0.806
0.739
0.837
FlowState-r1.1
0.785
0.697
0.689
0.672
0.716
0.772
0.713
0.754
TiRex-2
0.721
0.684
0.631
0.654
0.770
0.784
0.737
0.892
Chronos-2
0.698
0.700
0.698
0.653
0.725
0.756
0.720
0.816
Appendix
Table 4: Official GIFT-Eval By Frequency comparison. Each cell reports MASE.
Model
Multivariate
Univariate
Fracast-0 (Ours)
0.831
0.790
TinyCast
0.780
0.769
Moirai-2.0
0.752
0.709
FlowState-r1.1
0.717
0.689
TiRex-2
0.704
0.657
Chronos-2
0.709
0.689
Appendix
Table 5: Official GIFT-Eval By Variate Type comparison. Each cell reports MASE.
Time-series foundation models are pretrained sequence models designed to transfer across forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and other temporal tasks.