Organizations: Key Lab of High Confidence Software Technologies (Peking University), Ministry of Education, China · School of Computer Science, Peking University, Beijing, China · Zhongguancun Academy, Beijing, China · Yuanpei College, Peking University, Beijing, China · Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making, Ministry of Education, China · School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Anhui, China · Department of Electronic Engineering, BNRist, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Agent skills are expected to improve task performance. Yet we find that they often provide no benefit, and can even hurt performance while incurring additional token costs. Can we predict whether a skill will help before the agent acts? We introduce SkillDelta, a framework for predicting task-conditional skill gains from paired executions of the same agent with and without the skill. A local predictor transfers these historical gains to new tasks without retraining the agent. Under explicit transfer assumptions, our analysis links support coverage, representation mismatch, and execution noise to prediction error and decision regret. Across five benchmarks and three target agents, paired history improves observed-gain ranking over skill-assisted outcomes alone in 12 of 15 settings. At matched expected skill-use rates, SkillDelta improves success over random activation in all 15 settings, with an average absolute gain of 4.3%. Most of this advantage comes from allocation across task groups. Evidence for additional within-group selection value is strongest on ToolQA and weaker elsewhere. Code is available at https://github.com/TankTechnology/skilldelta.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: SkillDelta predicts skill gains before execution. Paired outcomes provide observed gains, which are transferred through nearby task embeddings to predict gain on a new task. Thresholding this prediction determines whether to use the skill. Only task text is encoded; the geometry is schematic.
Benchmark
Tasks
Skills
ToolQA
1,430
14
MedCalc-Bench
1,100
55
BigCodeBench
1,136
139
LogicBench
760
19
SpreadsheetBench
399
1 ‡
Table 1: Task and skill inventory.
Figure 2: Paired history improves observed-gain ranking in most settings.
Task success (%)
Token savings (%)
Model
Benchmark
Off
On
Self-judge
SkillDelta
Self-judge
SkillDelta
ToolQA
28.6
44.7
44.5
44.5
-5.3
10.4
MedCalc-Bench
43.2
71.7
70.5
70.6
-65.8
14.8
Qwen-Turbo
BigCodeBench
43.7
51.4
51.4
47.4
-98.2
49.4
LogicBench
75.5
87.2
87.4
85.2
-78.7
29.1
SpreadsheetBench
15.5
19.8
18.3
17.8
-72.3
36.2
Table 2: Task success and token change under the unified protocol.
Figure 3: Success–token trade-offs as the decision threshold changes.
Figure 4: Support, neighborhood size, and repetition affect prediction differently.
Appendix figures & tables8 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Figure 5: How the theory fits together. The main chain turns historical evidence into prediction and decision guarantees. Policy evaluation uses a separate action–outcome independence argument.
Relevance gate
Self-judge
Benchmark
Success (%)
Saved tokens (%)
Use (%)
Router tokens/task
BA gain (%) [95% CI]
Qwen-Turbo
ToolQA
36.99
3.07
94.2
1164
+30.41 [27.99, 32.75]
MedCalc-Bench
60.00
25.31
98.1
1583
+19.65 [17.11, 22.21]
BigCodeBench
50.18
46.76
99.5
4976
+1.77 [-2.49, 6.09]
LogicBench
83.03
35.69
98.3
1314
+8.55 [4.78, 12.27]
Appendix
Table 3: No-history baseline controls. BA gain is the absolute balanced-accuracy advantage of SkillDelta over self-judge.
Benchmark
Estimator
AUROC
Success (%)
Tokens saved (%)
ToolQA
SkillDelta
0.879
44.55
10.37
TF–IDF kNN
0.877
44.27
10.28
Family mean
0.786
45.38
7.55
MedCalc-Bench
SkillDelta
0.781
70.64
14.82
TF–IDF kNN
0.789
70.55
13.33
Family mean
0.785
71.55
7.71
Appendix
Table 4: Paired-evidence estimator controls on the complete Qwen-Turbo inventories.
Stack
Benchmark
AUROC: 95% CI
Success gain (%): 95% CI
Qwen-Turbo
ToolQA
[0.849, 0.907]
[13.9, 18.0]
Qwen-Turbo
MedCalc-Bench
[0.751, 0.810]
[24.5, 30.4]
Qwen-Turbo
BigCodeBench
[0.478, 0.577]
[1.8, 5.5]
Qwen-Turbo
LogicBench
[0.574, 0.667]
[7.2, 12.2]
Qwen-Turbo
SpreadsheetBench
[0.478, 0.681]
[-0.8, 5.5]
GLM-5.3-Flash
ToolQA
[0.792, 0.875]
[7.5, 10.7]
Appendix
Table 5: Task-bootstrap intervals for the main results. Gains are absolute success-rate differences from Always-off. Point estimates appear in Figures 2 and 2 . Scores and actions are fixed across 10,000 task resamples.
Figure 6: Selection value at the same expected skill-use rate. Points show the absolute success-rate advantage over random activation. Bars are 95% intervals from 5,000 task or whole-family resamples, keeping actions fixed and recomputing the matching rate. All estimates are positive; some intervals include zero.
Figure 7: Where selection value comes from. Within-group selection and between-group allocation sum to the advantage over global matched-rate random activation. Bars show conditional 95% intervals from task resampling within the recorded groups.
Single Ridge
Dual Ridge
Dual–On
Benchmark
N
On Acc.
Acc.
Save
Acc.
Save
Δ (%) [95% CI]
Qwen-Turbo
ToolQA
286
44.76
43.71
9.09
43.71
11.27
−1.05 [-3.51,+1.40]
MedCalc-Bench
220
75.91
72.27
19.17
73.64
19.55
−2.27 [-5.07,+0.46]
BigCodeBench
228
50.88
50.88
4.21
50.44
27.90
−0.44 [-3.07,+2.19]
LogicBench
152
89.04
87.94
22.83
87.94
22.83
−1.10 [-4.25,+2.03]
Appendix
Table 6: Ridge policy controls on identical fixed test tasks across three agents. Acc. and Save are percentages; saving is relative to Always-on. Δ is the absolute accuracy difference. Single Ridge uses the same validation search as Dual Ridge with λ=0 .
Transfer axis
Known
Target
AUROC
Balanced accuracy
Success gain
Tokens saved
ToolQA, unseen tasks within 8 families
96
160
.753
.689
+20.00%
3.62%
MedCalc, new tasks across 55 families
440
660
.719
.667
+16.21%
32.35%
BigCode, scale follow-up (20/family)
200
150
.716
.663
+2.00%
64.43%
BigCode, natural remaining distribution
350
200
.502
.572
+7.00%
32.88%
Appendix
Table 7: Prospective generalization stress tests. Success gain is the absolute difference between SkillDelta and Always-off; tokens saved are relative to Always-on. The panels differ in target construction.
Long-running agents accumulate reusable Skills, but a Skill that is semantically relevant to a task is not necessarily worth loading in the current state. We study the applicability question that arises once a candidate Skill is known: should it be loaded in the current state? We propose SkillApt, which uses matched WITH/WITHOUT Skill executions on the same task state as persistent evidence, estimates the conditional marginal utility of the Skill, and chooses LOAD or ABSTAIN accordingly. The base model, agent architecture, and Skill contents stay fixed; only the external deployment policy changes. We call this constrained setting strategy-level recursive self-improvement (Strategy-Level RSI). On 20 Skills and 160 held-out states, as paired evidence accumulates, SkillApt's task success rises from 81.9% under a cold start to 91.3%, matching a strong zero-shot LLM controller; yet SkillApt activates Skills on only 26.3% of states, versus 98.8% for the zero-shot controller. A hard-candidate study shows that non-optimal Skills mostly leave correctness unchanged while raising execution cost, and occasionally cause correctness harm. An ablation shows that a history recording only WITH success makes the policy load almost everywhere, whereas paired evidence substantially improves selectivity. These results indicate that relevance is not applicability: the main effect of execution evidence is not to make the model stronger but to change how existing Skills are deployed, moving the system from near-always loading to selective reuse.
Shuang Guo, Xiaobo Sui, Fei Jiang +4
Central China Normal University · Beijing Kuafu Technology Co., Ltd. · Monash University
Skills have emerged as a practical and effective approach for enhancing LLM agents at inference time through structured packages of knowledge. However, existing evaluations largely measure whether skills improve aggregated task success, leaving a more fundamental question underexplored: When do skills help, why do they work, and where do they fail? Through controlled experiments across various benchmarks, agent harnesses and LLMs, we isolate the effects of representation, outcome annotation, retrieval difficulty, and cross-framework robustness of skills. To further answer this question, we design a contrastive study that combines controlled quantitative experiments with paired trajectory analysis. We normalize 8,135 trial records from controlled experiments and retain 238 valid unique labels from 240 open-coded records. We consolidate these observations into a taxonomy of three high-level categories and twelve skill-use modes: skills work when noisy trajectories become procedural anchors that stabilize execution. Skills improve over Workflow Memory by 6.06 points in matched comparisons. Procedural anchoring accounts for 65.7% of skill cases, versus 4.5% for explicit knowledge injection, showing that skills stabilize action rather than inject missing facts. Retrieval is a separate bottleneck: as pools grow from 5 to 100, actual-use precision falls from 29.6% to 3.3%. Confusable distractors impair offline identification, yet downstream success remains stable; exact ground-truth invocation is neither sufficient nor necessary. Skills fail under brittle assumptions, incompatible contexts, or insufficient adaptation. These findings move evaluation beyond aggregate success rates and guide reliable self-evolving agents.
Zhiyuan Jiang, Fangrui Huang, Hanwen Xing +6
Princeton University · Stanford University · University of Southern California +2
Agent skills encode reusable procedural knowledge for large language model (LLM) agents, and existing benchmarks show that such skills can improve task-level performance. However, a task outcome does not reveal which parts of a reusable skill were exercised, nor whether the agent followed the relevant skill instructions when those parts were exercised. This gap makes it unclear whether a skill has been adequately tested, or whether observed task failures provide actionable evidence for improving agent skill effectiveness. To fill this gap, we introduce skill coverage, a trajectory-based test-adequacy metric for reusable agent skills. Our framework extracts skill behavior constraints from each skill, translating natural-language skill instructions into semi-structured constraints that specify the expected agent behavior under particular conditions. It then determines whether each constraint is covered by an agent trajectory and, for covered constraints, assigns a Pass or Fail verdict according to the agent behavior. We apply this framework to SkillsBench. The results show that agent trajectories on the benchmark leaderboard cover only 38.66 to 45.51% of the extracted skill behavior constraints on average. We then use Fail verdicts to strengthen the corresponding skill content only by emphasizing the original instructions that the agent failed to follow, and run the same tasks with the strengthened skills. This emphasis yields an average 16.0% recovery rate of the failed tasks across the five agent-model rows. These results show that skill coverage is both a test-adequacy metric and a fine-grained signal for observing skill-use behavior. In failed tasks, failed constraint labels provide actionable evidence for improving agent skill effectiveness. A project website accompanies the paper.
Boyin Tan, Xiaowei Huang, Youcheng Sun
1Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · University of Liverpool Liverpool, United Kingdom