Oracle Gaps in Reliability Coverage: Sampling Noise or Policy Specialization?

Oracle routing measures how much a pool of language models could gain from per-query selection, but the diagnostic has two flaws: testing against a best fixed model selected on the same examples invalidates paired inference, and a full-information oracle sees outcomes no deployable router observes. We separate three estimands (outcome-oracle opportunity, the Bayes-optimal gain from a declared pre-answer signal, and the held-out gain of a learned router) and prove selection-valid confidence intervals that survive choosing the best fixed model or the best member of a router family, a signal-information sandwich, and a $(1-1/e)$ greedy guarantee for building compact pools from submodular complementary coverage. On eight checkpoints from six families over four benchmarks, selection-valid intervals certify a population oracle gap of $9.7$--$30.7$ points on every task, yet the strongest deployable prompt router recovers only $7.5$--$14.4\%$ of it, and the simultaneous interval for the best of eleven tested policies has lower limit zero throughout. The realizable share of oracle opportunity is small and certifiable: strong routers beat the best fixed model, and most of the gap remains.

Routing benchmarks often compare a policy that commits to one model before seeing its response with a hindsight oracle that credits any correct recorded output. Under stochastic decoding these are different decision classes. For success marginals $p_{im}$ under a frozen query--model--decoder--scorer protocol, we distinguish the clairvoyant single-commit ceiling $R_i=\max_m p_{im}$, product-coupling union $U_i^\perp=1-\prod_m(1-p_{im})$, and premium $Δ_i^\perp=U_i^\perp-R_i$. The marginals alone identify exactly the union interval $[R_i,\min\{1,\sum_m p_{im}\}]$: zero premium is attainable over compatible couplings, not established for an actual deployment. If generation is independent across models, product is the specified protocol's union probability. We audit frozen correctness tensors from 11 open models and 30 archived responses per query--model cell on GSM8K, MATH-500, and GPQA-Diamond. Full-pool display-channel product premiums are 0.371, 3.542, and 5.100 percentage points; the premium intervals from empirical marginals are $[0,0.473]$, $[0,4.787]$, and $[0,7.744]$. Their zero lower endpoints are algebraic. All retained scorers, eight finite-draw paths, and all 2,047 nonempty subpools expose scorer, estimator, and pool sensitivity, not confidence intervals. The GSM8K and GPQA display scorers were developed after limited output inspection. A separate retrospective held-out policy illustration instantiates the policy-specific gap decomposition without establishing new-data generalization. A limited reference-based human check supports scorer agreement only on definite-consensus subsets. Hash-bound evidence supports number checks, not end-to-end reproduction. The contribution is a measurement contract for interpreting oracle gaps conditional on coupling, decision class, scorer, pool, and finite draws, not a population effect or an equal-cost routing gain.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has achieved substantial gains in single-attempt accuracy (Pass@1) on reasoning tasks, yet often suffers from reduced multi-sample coverage (Pass@K), indicating diversity collapse. We identify a structural cause for this degradation: common RLVR objectives, such as GRPO, are indifferent to how probability mass is distributed among correct solutions. Combined with stochastic training dynamics, this indifference induces a self-reinforcing collapse, in which probability mass concentrates on a narrow subset of correct outputs while alternative valid solutions are suppressed. We formalize this collapse mechanism and further characterize the optimal policy structure under two complementary criteria: robustness and entropy-regularized optimality, which identify the Uniform-Correct Policy as uniquely optimal. Motivated by this analysis, we propose Uniform-Correct Policy Optimization (UCPO), a modification to GRPO that adds a conditional uniformity penalty on the policy's distribution over correct solutions. The penalty redistributes gradient signal toward underrepresented correct responses, encouraging uniform allocation of probability mass within the correct set. Across three models (1.5B-7B parameters) and five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, UCPO improves Pass@K and diversity while maintaining competitive Pass@1, achieving up to +10% absolute improvement on AIME24 at Pass@64 and up to 45% higher equation-level diversity within the correct set. The code is available at https://github.com/AnamikaLochab/UCPO.