Domain-Adapted Diffusion Models for Conditional Independence Testing

Testing conditional independence is fundamental yet intrinsically difficult: without additional assumptions, Type I error control is impossible in general. The "Model-X'' paradigm addresses this difficulty by assuming exact knowledge of a relevant conditional distribution. While small deviations from this assumption can sometimes be tolerated in classical one-shot testing, existing sequential conditional independence tests typically require the Model-X conditional to be known exactly, making them fragile when it must instead be estimated. We propose a new approach that is substantially more robust to such estimation error. Our method applies testing-by-betting to an adaptively optimized Kernel Conditional Independence statistic, together with a normalization scheme and a truncate-and-shift calibration strategy. These modifications greatly reduce Type I error inflation while preserving high power across high-dimensional synthetic benchmarks and real-world fairness tasks, outperforming existing sequential Model-X approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/he-zh/SKCI.

Machine learning models often degrade when they are deployed on a target distribution that differs from the source distributions they were trained on. Recent work in causality-based domain generalization has shown how shared causal structure between domains can induce invariant predictors, e.g., models on a subset of features which have stable risk across structured domain shifts. However, the extent to which such population-level causal invariances can lead to gains in finite-sample settings remains underexplored. In particular, in practice we often have access to a few labeled target samples, a setting called supervised domain adaptation (sDA). In this paper, we explore when (full or partial) causal knowledge can provably improve supervised domain adaptation. As a first step, we study linear regression, where full or partial causal knowledge specifies a collection of invariant or possibly invariant feature subsets, each yielding a source-trained candidate predictor. We derive matching upper and lower bounds showing that finite-sample gains are governed by the target-risk margins separating the candidates, together with the finite-source estimation error. When these margins are sufficiently large relative to $n_Q$, an adaptive aggregation procedure can match the best candidate predictor while avoiding negative transfer relative to target-only learning. On the other hand, when the margins are too small, no algorithm can reliably exploit the candidate collection to obtain faster finite-sample rates. We further connect these margins to structural shift magnitude in linear SCMs and validate the theory on real-world causal benchmarks.

Conditional diffusion models have become a powerful and flexible framework for learning complex conditional distributions from labeled data. In practice, however, acquiring high-quality labels is costly and time-consuming, leaving large volumes of unlabeled data unused. To address this, we introduce label-augmented conditional diffusion (LACD), a simple and effective approach that incorporates unlabeled examples by assigning them a designated trivial label and performing joint denoising score matching over the augmented dataset. We provide sufficient conditions guaranteeing population-level identifiability of the target conditional distribution under this scheme. Moreover, we establish rigorous statistical guarantees: when sufficiently many unlabeled samples are available, the sampling distribution produced by LACD converges strictly faster than the purely supervised estimator in total variation distance, and at least as fast in Wasserstein-1 distance. Extensive experiments on synthetic, image, and tabular benchmarks corroborate our theory and show substantial gains in sample efficiency and generative performance compared with the purely supervised estimator.