Correct then Forecast: Observer State-Space Models for Time Series Forecasting

State Space Models (SSMs) are increasingly deployed in the Edge because they offer, at comparable performance, a smaller memory/training/inference footprint, compared to Large Language Models (LLMs). These three advantages are a direct consequence of the time recurrence inherent in the SSMs architecture. Here, we further improve this recurrent architecture by positively answering two previously underexplored, orthogonal questions: (1) Can we reduce SSMs memory-footprint without any performance penalty, by also employing depth recurrence? (2) Can we increase SSMs performance by using a fixed and consistent time-granularity across all tasks? The first question is somewhat unexpected, given that SSMs are already recurrent. However, the orthogonal depth recurrence further decreases SSMs memory footprint. We show that a looped SSM with $k$ parameters adaptively iterated $M$ times, achieves a performance comparable to a standard SSM with $k \cdot L$ independent parameters, where $M \leq L$. The second question is also unexpected given the time-recurrent nature of the SSMs architecture. However, it makes perfect sense for the time-parallel training of SSMs on the entire input sequence. We show that concatenating time steps for lower-dimensional sequence elements, or flattening and re-chunking the joint feature-time dimension for high-dimensional ones, can improve the baseline by enhancing the way information is presented to the model. Our results for both extensions lead to consistent benefits across four representative SSM architectures: LRU, S5, LinOSS, LrcSSM.

In many domains, practitioners seek models that produce accurate forecasts while faithfully capturing latent system dynamics. Existing approaches typically sacrifice one of these goals: deep state space models often assume Gaussian latent transitions, limiting fit and forecasting, while diffusion models are highly expressive but lack principled inference for the underlying dynamics. To combine the strengths of both, we introduce the Diffusion-Driven State Space Model (DDSSM), which replaces the conventional Gaussian transition distribution with a diffusion model. Our DDSSM resolves the open problem of how to jointly train an autoencoder and a diffusion model on sequential data, thereby extending the literature on latent diffusion models for time series. Moreover, we find that the DDSSM empirically outperforms a state-of-the-art deep SSM at fitting and forecasting a simulated time series with multimodal transitions.

Long-horizon multivariate time series forecasting (LTSF) remains challenging due to non-stationarity, regime shifts, and error accumulation. The Variability-Aware Recursive Neural Network (VARNN) is designed to track such variability by maintaining a residual-memory state driven by one-step prediction errors. However, its original formulation is limited to one-step sequence regression and does not directly support multi-step forecasting. In this work, we extend VARNN to long-horizon forecasting and introduce StateFlow, a recurrent forecasting framework that uses VARNN as a dual-state recurrent backbone to capture two complementary signals from the lookback sequence: a hidden-state trajectory representing primary temporal dynamics, including trend, seasonality, level changes, and recurring patterns, and a residual-memory trajectory representing structured local prediction deviations, driven from a nonlinear recurrent transformation of errors between one-step base predictions and observed values. A chunk-based decoder separately summarizes these trajectories and maps them to the future horizon for direct multi-step forecasting. We further employ a two-stage optimization strategy that first trains the VARNN encoder through a one-step base prediction objective to optimize the internal representations over the lookback sequence, and then trains a horizon-specific decoder for direct multi-step forecasting. Experiments on standard LTSF benchmarks show that StateFlow achieves competitive performance against strong linear, recurrent, convolutional, and Transformer-based baselines while preserving linear recurrent encoding and a compact model design.