stat.MLSep 28, 2026

The Statistical Cost of Causal Discovery with Feedback

Authors: Sunmin Oh, Seungsu Han, Gunwoong Park

Organizations: Department of Statistics; Institute for Data Innovation in Science, Seoul National University, Korea · Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Princeton University, USA · Department of Statistics; Interdisciplinary Program in Artificial Intelligence; Institute for Data Innovation in Science, Seoul National University, Korea.

Abstract

What determines the unavoidable sample cost of learning cyclic causal structure? For cyclic linear non-Gaussian models, we study exact condensation recovery from observational data: identifying the strongly connected component (SCC) partition and all edges between components. We establish the first information-theoretic lower bounds on sample complexity for this target. For pp variables, maximum SCC size smax⁡s_{\max}, and maximum external-parent count dBd_B, any estimator requires order smax⁡log⁡(ep/smax⁡)+dBlog⁡(ep/dB)s_{\max}\log(ep/s_{\max})+d_B\log(ep/d_B) samples in the worst case over a regular model class. These bounds distinguish the costs of SCC membership and external-parent selection. Under principal invertibility and without correlation faithfulness, we establish a population block-exogeneity principle that identifies unknown root SCCs through residual independence and inclusion minimality. A sparse-adjustment characterization shows that small adjustment sets suffice to identify SCCs and their direct external parents, without regressing on all previously recovered variables. These characterizations yield BlockExo, which attains a structurally matching sample bound without knowing smax⁡s_{\max} or dBd_B under suitable conditions. Simulations support the structural dependence of our sample bound and demonstrate BlockExo's sample-efficient recovery in comparisons with other methods for cyclic causal discovery.

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