MoSPR: Histology-to-Gene Expression Prediction with Morpho-Spatial Macrostates and Low-Rank Molecular Programs

Predicting spatial gene expression from routine hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) images provides a practical complement to experimental spatial transcriptomics. Existing approaches focus on local or multi-scale visual features and often treat pretrained gene representations as fixed priors, although the interpretation of local morphology and the relevance of gene priors depend on tissue context. We propose HistoGPA, a context-conditioned gene-prior attention framework that uses a shared slide-level representation in two parallel pathways: one modulates local morphological features, whereas the other conditions pretrained gene embeddings and retrieves gene-prior information through cross-attention. This design enables each spatial location to retrieve context-adapted gene-prior information using its local morphology, position, and slide context. Across ten cancer types in HEST-1k, HistoGPA achieves the highest macro-averaged gene-wise Pearson correlation coefficient among the compared methods under the same evaluation protocol for both the top-50 and top-1,500 highly variable gene sets. Additional analyses show that HistoGPA better recovers the spatial expression patterns of cancer-associated genes and yields greater agreement between clusters derived independently from predicted and ground-truth expression profiles. Together, these findings motivate a context-dependent view of histology-to-expression prediction, in which local morphological representations and gene priors are jointly adapted to the broader tissue context.

H&E-stained whole-slide images offer cohort-scale availability and rich spatial context but lack molecular specificity, whereas bulk RNA-seq provides transcriptome-wide resolution at high cost with limited archival availability. We show that training a lightweight alignment module atop frozen histopathology and RNA-Seq foundation models enables open-vocabulary molecular prompting -- querying H&E slides with gene-set signatures to predict pathway activity without sequencing or end-to-end retraining. Using contrastive learning on a multi-cancer cohort (N=1,720), we achieve a 25-fold improvement in retrieval over baseline methods. Systematic analysis reveals a graduated predictability spectrum: morphologically grounded programs (cell-cycle programs, immune-related) are most reliably predicted (R^2>0.5), while predicting pathways with no morphological footprint remains challenging as expected. We validate clinical utility on the POSEIDON clinical trial: H&E-predicted squamous cell carcinoma scores recapitulate NSCLC subtype identity and predicted IFN-gamma mirror PD-L1 tumor-cell expression groups. Furthermore, genesets describing immune activation and fibrosis predict known tumor microenvironment archetypes from histology alone. We further validate generalization of our approach across unseen cohorts and demonstrate data-efficient domain adaptation, establishing a slide-native framework for molecular analysis on H&E images.

Spatial transcriptomics (ST) enables spatially resolved gene profiling but remains expensive and low-throughput, limiting large-cohort studies and routine clinical use. Predicting spatial gene expression from routine hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) slides is a promising alternative, yet under realistic leave-one-slide-out evaluation, existing models often suffer from slide-level appearance shifts and regression-driven over-smoothing that suppress biologically meaningful variation. CHRep is a two-phase framework for robust histology-to-expression prediction. In the training phase, CHRep learns a structure-aware representation by jointly optimizing correlation-aware regression, symmetric image-expression alignment, and coordinate-induced spatial topology regularization. In the inference phase, cross-slide robustness is improved without backbone fine-tuning through a lightweight calibration module trained on the training slides, which combines a non-parametric estimate from a training gallery with a magnitude-regularized correction module. Unlike prior embedding-alignment or retrieval-based transfer methods that rely on a single prediction route, CHRep couples topology-preserving representation learning with post-hoc calibration, enabling stable neighborhood retrieval and controlled bias correction under slide-level shifts. Across the three cohorts, CHRep consistently improves gene-wise correlation under leave-one-slide-out evaluation, with the largest gains observed on Alex+10x. Relative to HAGE, the Pearson correlation coefficient on all considered genes [PCC(ACG)] increases by 4.0% on cSCC and 9.8% on HER2+. Relative to mclSTExp, PCC(ACG) further improves by 39.5% on Alex+10x, together with 9.7% and 9.0% reductions in mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), respectively.