Learning Conditional Expectation Operators via Functional Newton Updates

Conditional expectation operators (CEOs) and their associated conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) play a central role across applied mathematics and machine learning, appearing in nonparametric regression, Bayesian inverse problems, and Koopman operator theory. A fundamental question is when a CEO maps a function space on $\mathcal{Y}$ into a prescribed function space on $\mathcal{X}$, particularly a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We show that such mapping properties are characterized by the regularity of the Radon--Nikodym density of the conditional law, and establish a simple, verifiable sufficient condition under which the CEO is bounded and Hilbert--Schmidt. For RKHSs norm-equivalent to Sobolev spaces, this condition reduces to Sobolev regularity of the conditional density. The result yields a direct route to validate CME representations and error bounds for Galerkin-type and CME-based estimators. We verify the regularity condition in three settings: nonparametric regression, Bayesian inverse problems, and Koopman operator theory for stochastic dynamical systems. We show in each case that classical regularity results on the underlying probabilistic model imply the required mapping properties. The resulting framework offers a unified perspective on conditional expectation operators across probability, operator theory, kernel methods, and stochastic dynamics.

Probabilistic conditioning is concerned with the identification of a distribution of a random variable $X$ given a random variable $Y$. It is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications where modeling uncertainty is key. This problem has traditionally been addressed in machine learning by directly learning the conditional distribution of a fixed joint distribution. This paper introduces a novel perspective: we propose to solve the conditioning problem by identifying a single operator that maps any joint density to its conditional, thus amortizing over joint-conditional pairs. We establish that the conditioning operator can be approximated to arbitrary accuracy by neural operators. Our proof relies on new results establishing continuity of the conditioning operator over suitable classes of densities. Finally, we learn the conditioning map for a class of Gaussian mixtures using neural operators, illustrating the promise of our framework. This work provides the theoretical underpinnings for general-purpose, amortized methods for probabilistic conditioning, such as foundation models for Bayesian inference.

We develop a stochastic approximation framework for learning nonlinear operators between infinite-dimensional spaces utilizing general Mercer operator-valued kernels. Our framework encompasses two key classes: (i) operator-valued kernels whose associated integral operators are compact and hence admit discrete spectral decompositions, and (ii) separable kernels of the form $K(x,x')=k(x,x')T$, where $k$ is a scalar-valued kernel and $T$ is a positive operator on the output space. This broad setting induces expressive vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) that generalize the classical $K=kI$ paradigm, thereby enabling rich structural modeling with rigorous theoretical guarantees. To address target operators lying outside the RKHS, we introduce vector-valued interpolation spaces to precisely quantify misspecification error. Within this framework, we establish non-asymptotic convergence rates for prediction, estimation, and misspecification errors in the online and finite-horizon settings. Importantly, the framework also accommodates a range of operator learning settings, from Fredholm integral operators to encoder--decoder architectures. Numerical experiments on the two-dimensional Navier--Stokes equations illustrate the proposed approach.