cs.AISep 28, 2026

From cacophony to hierarchy: a principled framework for assessing AI consciousness

Authors: Shamil Chandaria, Arvo Muñoz Morán, Fernando Rosas, Anil Seth, Henry Shevlin, Marcus Hutter, Thore Graepel, Adam Bales, +6 more

Organizations: Google DeepMind, DeepMind Institute · Flourishing Intelligence Program, Centre for Eudaimonia and Human Flourishing, Linacre College, University of Oxford · Institute of Philosophy, University of London · Fitzwilliam College, University of Cambridge · AI Cognition Institute · Rethink Priorities · School of Engineering and Informatics, University of Sussex · Department of Brain Sciences, Imperial College London · Sussex Centre for Consciousness Science, University of Sussex · Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence, University of Cambridge · School of Computing, Australian National University · University College London · Department of Computing, Imperial College London · Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford · LIFE · Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London · Interacting Minds Centre, Aarhus University

Abstract

The question of AI consciousness is one of the most urgent pre-emptive problems in philosophy and computer science, yet progress is hampered by a cacophony of competing theories that often talk past each other. Separating the hard problem from the mapping problem allows the deepest metaphysical disagreements to be set aside: granting that experience supervenes on a system's organisation, the tractable question becomes at which grain of description that supervenience base sits. We extend Marr's three levels of analysis into a five-level hierarchy of functional descriptions (behavioural, computational, intrinsic causal-structural, organismic, and organism-environment) grounded in supervenience, coarse-graining, and multiple realisability. The major theories of consciousness are positioned within this hierarchy according to which level they take to be critical, and for each level we develop operationalisable indicators and assess current AI systems against them. A Bayesian model then combines theoretical credences with indicator evidence into an overall credence in a system's capacity for consciousness. In illustrative assessments, the verdict for current LLMs is driven as much by where theoretical credence is placed as by how the evidence is read: under different stipulated readings and credence distributions, assessments range from below 0.01 to roughly 0.8, showing sensitivity to assumptions. Finally, the consciousness indicators at each level closely overlap with the architectural features needed for general intelligence, suggesting that increasingly capable AI may become a stronger candidate for consciousness. The framework supports a structured agnosticism, in which theoretical commitments are made explicit, credences are updated as evidence accumulates, and assessments take the form of aggregated probabilities rather than verdicts.

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