ScAn-Bench: Evaluating Scaling Analysis Methodology

Scaling laws provide a fundamental framework for understanding the performance of Language Models (LMs), yet deriving them requires prohibitively expensive evaluations across thousands of checkpoints or millions of inference samples. To address this, we introduce Item Response Scaling Laws (IRSL), a unified framework that integrates Item Response Theory (IRT) within the scaling law framework. Unlike traditional approaches that treat each model-benchmark pair in isolation, IRSL disentangles latent model ability from question characteristics, factorizing the scaling law estimation for $M$ models and $N$ questions to significantly reduce parameter complexity from $O(M \times N)$ to $O(M + N)$. We instantiate IRSL with Beta-IRT, which leverages the empirical probability responses of LMs -- such as token probabilities in pre-training and pass rates in test-time sampling -- to capture richer signals than binary responses. We validate our approach across two prevalent scaling paradigms: (1) pre-training downstream scaling, using 6,612 LM checkpoints and 37,682 questions from 10 benchmarks; and (2) test-time scaling, using 12 LMs and 120 questions from 4 benchmarks with up to 2,500 samples per question. Given a one-time calibration on existing model responses, IRSL yields more reliable scaling estimates using only 50 questions per benchmark (a 99.9% reduction), achieving comparable or superior decision accuracy to traditional approaches. Furthermore, we show that the estimated latent model abilities are generalizable, enabling accurate performance forecasting across benchmarks that share the same measurement objective.

Test-time scaling is a paradigm where large models use additional compute at inference to achieve better performance, without changing model weights. While it has been widely studied for Large Language Models (LLMs), its applicability to Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) remains less explored and analyzed, with limited analysis of whether, when, and to what extent these approaches transfer to LVLMs. In this work, we ask a simple but fundamental question: can conventional test-time scaling methods developed for LLMs be directly applied to LVLMs? We present the first comprehensive study of test-time scaling for LVLMs, spanning multiple models and model sizes, nine test-time scaling methods, and six diverse benchmarks. Our main findings is that 1) different from previous findings, small, well-performing models benefit the most from test-time scaling, enabling performance improvements of up to around 30%, reaching large models performance, and often outperforming them, 2) LVLMs lose focus when given more compute than necessary, and 3) Visual information is encoded early in the reasoning chain, after which the chain is dominated by text-only reasoning and the contribution of image tokens drops significantly. Finally, we also provide a global and fine-grained analysis on the quality and information sufficiency of the reasoning chains produced. Overall, our findings and analysis provide practical guidance and insights into LVLMs and their deployment in research and industry.

Artificial intelligence benchmarks are an important mechanism for measuring model progress and guiding deployment decisions. However, benchmarks quickly "saturate", making it difficult to differentiate models and diminishing their long-term value. In this study, we define benchmark saturation and analyze it across 60 language model benchmarks using 14 properties that relate to saturation. We find that nearly half of the our benchmarks exhibit saturation, with rates increasing with age. Further, we find that resilience to saturation is impacted by expert-curation, not by public test data. Our results suggest that design choices can extend benchmark longevity and inform more durable evaluation approaches.