What if automating AI R&D triggers an intelligence explosion?
Organizations: GovAI · CASP, University of Cambridge, Institute for Law & AI · University of Massachusetts Amherst · OpenAI · University of Toronto, Vector Institute · Microsoft · Mila (Quebec AI Institute), Universit´e de Montr´eal, LawZero · University of California, Berkeley · Anthropic · University of Oxford · University of Virginia, Anthropic · Foundation for American Innovation · University College London · University of British Columbia, Vector Institute · Guidelight · Forethought · AI Policy Institute
Abstract
In contrast to even a year ago, AI systems now write most of the code inside the companies that build them. As more of the AI research and development (R&D) pipeline is automated, could AI progress radically accelerate in an "intelligence explosion," where years of advances are compressed into months or less? Preliminary evidence suggests that it could. In this work, we assess this evidence, analyze an intelligence explosion's potential impacts, and propose policy responses. AI systems are on track to automate most AI R&D work within a few years, and possibly all of it. If this triggers an intelligence explosion, it could dramatically bring forward AI's benefits, but also pose extreme risks: capabilities growth could accelerate far beyond what society can keep up with, humanity could lose control over superhuman AI systems, and checks on power within and between states, companies, and branches of government could be severely eroded. Although there remains much uncertainty about these possibilities, the high stakes warrant serious further attention. Policymakers should urgently obtain more visibility into the automation of AI R&D, develop ways to steer and constrain an intelligence explosion, and prepare society to adapt to an intelligence explosion's impacts.