Foresight at the Event Boundary: Evaluating Physical Prediction in Video World Models

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Video generation models are increasingly used as world simulators for tasks like driving and robotic manipulation. What matters in these settings is not whether a single video looks right, but whether the model's output changes when its input changes. We test this by giving a model two prompts describing the same scene with one physical detail varied, and checking whether the two videos diverge the way physics predicts. The wording difference between the prompts is small by design, since only one variable is changed, but the correct physical difference is not. A model that misses this can still produce two videos that each look plausible individually, and existing benchmarks score videos one at a time and cannot detect this failure. We introduce What-If World, 319 such prompt pairs built on real frames from nuScenes and DROID, organized by a taxonomy of six physical variables shared across driving and manipulation. Each pair is scored with APEO, a four-part rubric checking whether each video follows its prompt (Adherence), is physically consistent (Physics), preserves the shared scene (Environment), and ends in the correct difference (Outcome). Across nine state-of-the-art models, no system exceeds 52% on the paired score, and open-source models cluster near 28%. Every model tested fails on a large fraction of causal interventions, indicating substantial room before these models can reliably support action-conditioned simulation or model-based planning. Where models do score well, performance appears to track the visual prominence of the intervention rather than the tractability of its underlying physics. Some visually subtle interventions score as low as 14.2%, while visually pronounced ones reach 40.4%.

World simulators can provide safe and scalable environments for training Physical AI systems before real-world deployment. Large video generation models are emerging as a promising basis for such simulators because they can generate diverse and realistic visual futures. However, using them as world simulators requires physically faithful video continuations, namely, generated videos that preserve the physical state implied by the conditioning input, and evolve in ways consistent with basic physical principles. We propose PhyWorld, a video generation world model designed to produce temporally coherent and physically faithful scene continuations through two-stage post-training. In the first stage, we improve video-to-video continuation with flow matching fine-tuning, encouraging stable visual attributes and coherent motion dynamics across frames. In the second stage, we align generated dynamics with physical principles using Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) over physics preference pairs, guiding the model toward outputs with higher physical plausibility. To evaluate PhyWorld, we use both standard video-quality benchmarks and a dedicated physical-faithfulness benchmark with per-law scoring. Experiments show that PhyWorld improves video consistency, achieving an average score of 0.769 on VBench compared with 0.756 or below for state-of-the-art baselines. PhyWorld also improves physical plausibility, reaching an average score of 3.09 on our physical-faithfulness benchmark compared with 2.99 for the strongest baseline. These results suggest that post-training large video generation models with continuation and physics-preference signals can make them more effective world simulators for Physical AI.