Organizations: Faculty of Information Science and Technology, Hokkaido University, Japan · SANKEN, The University of Osaka, Japan · Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, USA · PediaMed AI, USA
Forecasting time-varying functional connectivity from electroencephalography (EEG) requires modeling both history-dependent trends and structured variability across channels. Conditional flow matching provides a framework for distributional forecasting, yet it remains unclear whether graph-informed source distributions offer practical advantages over isotropic noise and strong deterministic predictors. We introduce a graph-structured residual flow framework that separates conditional mean prediction from stochastic residual transport. A history-only predictor estimates the future connectivity graph, while a graph Gaussian source encodes dependencies derived from past connectivity through a Laplacian-based covariance. A conditional velocity field transports source samples to future graph residuals, with transport time explicitly distinguished from physical EEG time. Our study identifies the conditions and controls needed to distinguish useful residual transport from improvements attributable to deterministic prediction, learned representations, and sampling effects.
Figures & tables
Model
Formulation
Continuous
Graphical
Stochastic
CNN-LSTM
Spatial-temporal encoding
✗
✗
✗
BIOT ( Yang et al., 2023 )
Biosignal Transformer
✗
✗
✗
EvolveGCN ( Pareja et al., 2020 )
Evolving graph convolution
✗
✓
✗
DCRNN
Diffusion-graph convolutional RNN
✗
✓
✗
neural ODE
latent dynamics
✓
✗
✗
neural SDE
Stochastic latent dynamics
✓
✗
✓
Table 1: Comparison of representative methods for modeling EEG dynamics.
Figure 1: (Left) Continuous EEG real-time neuronal activity recordings. (Mid) An isotropic gaussian source-based method learns dynamic representations. (Right) Ours provides a graph conditioned source-based approach for learning the neuronal population dynamics.
Figure 2: Overview of the proposed GRFBrain . (a) Temporal EEG features and functional association graphs define state-dependent states and a graph Gaussian residual source, whose covariance is adapted to the observed graph states. (b) A joint node-edge velocity network transports node and edge residuals along a shared flow coordinate, coupling channel-wise state variations.
Model
Method
T(s)
AUROC
F1
Flow-based
BIOT
12
0.772 ± 0.006
0.294 ± 0.006
60
0.642 ± 0.009
0.256 ± 0.003
DCRNN
12
0.825 ± 0.002
0.416 ± 0.009
60
0.802 ± 0.003
0.413 ± 0.005
Flow matching
12
0.813 ± 0.002
0.372 ± 0.013
60
0.725 ± 0.006
0.311 ± 0.028
Table 2: Results (AUROC ↑ , F1 ↑ ) on TUSZ (12s and 60s seizure detection). The upper block compares GRFBrain with discrete and continuous baselines (bold = best); the lower block ablates the node-edge interaction routes within GRFBrain .
Method
TUSZ
TUAB
Acc
F1
AUROC
Acc
F1
AUROC
CNN-LSTM
0.735±0.003
0.347±0.012
0.757±0.003
0.741±0.002
0.736±0.007
0.813±0.003
BIOT
0.702±0.003
0.294±0.006
0.772±0.006
0.717±0.002
0.713±0.004
0.788±0.002
EvolveGCN
0.769±0.002
0.385±0.005
0.791±0.004
0.708±0.003
0.707±0.002
0.777±0.003
DCRNN
0.816±0.002
0.416±0.009
0.825±0.002
0.768±0.004
0.769±0.002
0.848±0.002
latent-ODE
0.827±0.004
0.470±0.005
0.849±0.004
0.749±0.003
0.745±0.002
0.829±0.004
Table 3: Main results on TUSZ (12s seizure detection) and TUAB abnormal EEG classification, reported as mean ± standard deviation over three seeds. Bold and underline indicate the best and second-best results for each metric, respectively. † denotes models trained with a multi-step predictive objective, and ‡ denotes models trained with a single-step predictive objective.
Figure 3: Visualization of the proposed joint node-edge velocity field vθ (middle) obtained by GRFBrain . The learned velocity exists the distinct patterns of graph reconfiguration, which seizure represents higher and dense magnitude and non-seizure represents lower and sparse magnitude.
Figure 4: Results on (a) graph similarity and (b) functional connections.
Figure 5: Effect of source geometry in GRFBrain . IID Gaussian, global GGRF, and our conditioned GGRF sources are compared across downstream classification metrics. Our conditional GGRF consistently improves the learned representation quality.
Figure 6: Summary of ablation study. (a) Velocity-network parameterization, (b) node and edge transport targets, and (c) forecasting horizon. The proposed joint node–edge velocity network, joint transport supervision, and short-horizon prediction provide the strongest overall performance.
Appendix figures & tables2 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Method
TUSZ
TUAB
Acc
F1
AUROC
Acc
F1
AUROC
Max pooling
0.878±0.001
0.523±0.014
0.877±0.003
0.787±0.004
0.786±0.004
0.877±0.006
Mean pooling
0.851±3
0.461±2
0.857±2
0.788±5
0.784±4
0.872±6
Sum pooling
0.867±2
0.506±5
0.863±4
0.788±7
0.785±6
0.877±3
Appendix
Table 4: Ablation of pooling options on TUSZ (12s seizure detection) and TUAB . Bold indicates best result.
Figure 7: Visualization results of latent joint node-edge dynamic field.