Reserve-Aware Contrast Certificates for Conservative Bandits with Uncertain Baselines

Selective predictors answer on confident inputs and abstain elsewhere; deploying one safely needs a single finite-sample certificate that simultaneously upper-bounds the selected risk, lower-bounds the acceptance probability $\pacc$ above a floor $\pmin$, and lower-bounds the deployment utility. This certificate must be valid under adaptive threshold selection from a finite grid of $m$ pairs on $\ncert$ samples. We give such a certificate for bounded, possibly non-monotone losses by treating the selected risk directly as a ratio rather than through a Hoeffding-style range bound. The construction couples three confidence bounds: a variance-adaptive empirical-Bernstein bound on the ratio risk, a Clopper--Pearson bound on acceptance, and a two-sided closeness bound on utility. Together they lower-bound the certified policy's utility absolutely and to within $2\gammau$ of the best over the \emph{certified set}, both non-vacuous whenever feasible; a regime-scoped third leg matches an external oracle, informative only where the risk margin $\gammar < α$ and vacuous at the headline operating points. Relative to the range-only Hoeffding-ratio construction this sharpens the acceptance-floor dependence from $1/\pmin$ to $1/\sqrt{\pmin}$, and a closed-form corollary identifies a per-pair regime in which our risk bound dominates a Hoeffding conformal risk control (Hoeffding--CRC) selective bound. Empirically, on ImageNet (three ResNets) and COCO val 2017 panoptic, the certificate opens a $+22$ pp certified-acceptance frontier over Hoeffding--CRC and is ${\approx}10{\times}$ tighter than a non-vacuous matched-valid baseline; these gains are regime-scoped, not universal, and absent on ADE20K. The certifier runs in $O(\ncert m)$ time.

Average-reward reinforcement-learning regret is known up to logarithmic factors, but the numerical content of published guarantees is difficult to compare because probability mode, structural parameter, logarithmic normalization, prior information, and planning assumptions differ. We introduce a constant-aware comparison protocol and derive an explicit finite lower certificate for communicating MDPs. The construction is a binary tree of two-state blocks; its proof uses exact trajectory-level Bernoulli KL divergence and keeps action budget, diameter, occupancy, navigation cost, and terminal bias explicit. A common closed-form envelope improves the published coefficient $0.015$ across a finite frontier: $0.0200$ in a moderate regime and up to $0.0291$ under stronger action, diameter, and horizon conditions, a $94\%$ increase. The limiting coefficient is $\frac1{32}\sqrt{(A-3)/A}$. For upper bounds, we give an auditable composition rule for a span-constrained optimistic learner, but do not claim a coefficient while adaptive directional-variance and planning certificates remain open. We also formalize valid expectation conversion and constant comparability. Controlled diagnostics test diameter dependence, bonus-by-width interactions, span misspecification, and the finite lower certificate on its exact family.

Many bandit systems are deployed with offline historical data, such as past logs from earlier policies. Using these data can reduce early online exploration when they remain informative for the online problem. When the offline and online environments differ, such data can be biased for the online problem. For linear (contextual) bandits, this bias is directional: offline data may be informative in some feature directions and misleading in others. However, prior work typically controls this gap through a known Euclidean bound on the model parameters, which we prove is too coarse: even with the offline parameter known, bias in a single unknown direction can force dimension-dependent regret. To address this challenge, we introduce a directional bias certificate $(M_{\mathrm{bias}},ρ)$ that measures the offline-to-online gap through an $M_{\mathrm{bias}}$-induced norm and assigns different bias budgets to different directions. Building on this certificate, we propose \emph{Ellipsoidal-MINUCB}, which augments the online learning with an offline-pooled branch that safely exploits historical data. When the certificate is known, we show that the algorithm matches the standard SupLinUCB rate in the worst case and improves when offline coverage aligns with low-bias directions. When the certificate is unknown, we estimate it adaptively from offline and accumulated online data and establish a corresponding regret guarantee. Numerical experiments support the theory and show gains in aligned regimes.